Last week the #EhTeam gave you their Must Haves for the upcoming NFL season. This week the crew is back to state which players you should Stay Away from in 2021.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson fantasy owners were rejoicing during the first five games of the 2020 season. Wilson threw for 19 TDs, had a QBR rating of 123.8, and was averaging 29.48 fantasy points per game. Russ was cooking and so were his owners. But eventually, the bottom fell out. In the last five games of the 2020 season, which included the fantasy football playoff weeks, Wilson threw for just 9 TDs, had a QB rating of 91.1, and his fantasy production plummeted to 17.44 points per game. In a stretch of the season where he saw fewer blitzes, was sacked less, and had less WR drops, Wilson’s fantasy owners were left scratching their collective heads. He may have got you into your league playoffs but he certainly did not perform when it counted most.
The blame was not entirely Wilson’s to bear. Although he ended the season tied for third with 13 interceptions, he was the 6th ranked QB in fantasy football. The problem was that the Seahawks featured too much of Wilson. They were too one dimensional offensively. At age 32, Wilson was second on the team in both rush attempts and rushing yards. Lead RB Chris Carson managed only 681 yards himself. It became extremely evident that opposing defensive schemes focused their attention on eliminating Wilson’s weapons through the air. And heading into the 2021 season, the Seahawks failed to address the lack of running game through the draft or free agency. The tire treads on the 32 year old Wilson are worn. There are better options in redraft leagues including reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers or reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert. Both have higher Average Draft Positions than Wilson and more importantly, both are on teams with diversified offenses.
– Jason Ferris (@jferris72)
RB Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins
2021 Zero RB darling Myles Gaskin has some inherent appeal that even I can notice. Miami did nothing to supplant him through the draft or free agency (unless you count Malcolm Brown, which I don’t). However, Gaskin is solidly in the RB Dead Zone, a place where RBs have worse hit rates than your high school dating record. How certain are we in his unchallenged role? Just last season we saw other jags such as Salvon Ahmed have fantasy success in this system. Gaskin is not fast (4.58 40-yard), doesn’t break tackles and doesn’t jump off the board athletically. There is not much separating him and the next guy up. He’s undersized and faces some tough defenses in 2021. Miami can walk away with a 10-7 record if things break right, so they’re going to have to lean on the passing attack, which is already the direction they were trending towards with their offseason moves. This brings me to my next detrimental point for Gaskin. If the passing game is to be the focus, will Gaskin see the targets out of the backfield that he did last year? Without that target volume, he becomes a lot less appealing. If I’m looking at a RB, it better be a guy locked into 40+ targets like a Swift or an Etienne, not a guy who could be replaced by a guy named Salvon or Gerrid.
– Josh “Smokey-Hell” Nelson (@TNFF_Smokey)
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RB Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles
My hesitation in avoiding the former Penn State Nittany Lion has nothing to do with a lack of belief for the player’s talent, because frankly he’s got a lot of it. His explosiveness cannot be denied, but his inconsistency and what appears to be a lack of commitment from the Philadelphia Eagles’ coaching staff is a bit of a turn off.
After adding other RBs like Kerryon Johnson in free agency, and Kenneth Gainwell in the NFL Draft, it seems as though the Eagles’ are hesitant to put all of their eggs in Miles Sanders’ basket. At his current ADP of 35 overall in PPR (RB18), there is potential that he pays off in drafts, but he will see some work go the way of his peers, especially Gainwell on third downs. Sanders struggled to make some key receptions in 2020, and Gainwell was drafted as one of the premier pass-catching backs in the draft. I refuse to play the injury prediction game, but if Sanders does wind up missing some time as he has in the past, the coaching staff could begin to put even more faith into the aforementioned backups in the City of Brotherly Love. At best, he’s a high end RB2.
– Nate Williams (@Nate_FFL)
RB Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
With the injuries to Casron Wentz and Quenton Nelson, this may seem like a cop out, however, whether Wentz starts week one or peek six, Taylor is my “stay-away.” Before I dive into it, I want to start by saying I know Taylor is an exceptionally talented back who set the world on fire at the end of last season. However, his current expert consensus ranking is ninth overall and that’s is a little too sweet for my liking. One of the greatest indicators for fantasy draft success is getting production from your first round picks. Often this results in players that have a guaranteed workload or are on an explosive offence. I don’t believe Taylor is a guarantee to have either of those criteria.
When I think of Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery, one of the first thoughts that comes to mind is how his success in 2020 was heavily reliant on playing weak defences. But for some reason, the schedule in 2020 is often overlooked when it comes to Taylor. Over the last six games of the season (when both Taylor and Montgomery were fantasy stars) they BOTH faced defences that averaged 24th in rushing yards allowed. Taylor is a much more talented RB, making his production seem more realistic and true but his easy end of the season schedule should be taken into consideration. Not only was his end-of-season production potentially inflated, this offseason the Colts went and acquired Carson Wentz who had a horrific season in 2020. Regardless of when he comes back from injury, in his twelve games in 2020, Wentz managed to set a career-high in interceptions, and his lowest QB rating in his last four seasons. Although the Colts are a much better team than the Eagles, if you watched Wentz in 2020, you know it’s tough to have a lot of confidence in him moving the offence. Now if/when Wentz isnt under center, fantasy managers are relying on the unproven fourth round pick Jacob Eason to run the offence. Lastly, the team still has Jordan Wilkins, Marlon Mack, and Nyhiem Hines who had the third most targets at the position in 2020. Although Taylor is the lead guy, these backs will take some touches away from Taylor. This collection of uncertainties makes me “out” on Taylor for this season. I would rather use my first round pick on the top end WR’s, Travis Kelce, or known stud backs such as Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, or Nick Chubb.
– Ellis Johnson (@YoitsEllis_FF)
RB J.K. Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens
Due to a low number of pass attempts the Baltimore Ravens have the fantasy community convinced that they are a run first team with a heavy focus around the RBs, giving them significant value. Colour me skeptical. J.K Dobbins is being drafted as the RB10 in dynasty startups right now and I can’t justify such a steep price. Ravens RBs ranked 13th in rushing attempts and 31st in receptions last season, plus have a QB who for the last two seasons has over 150 rushing attempts and over 1000 yards on the ground. A renewed focus on the aerial attack with draft picks in WRs Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace plus free agent WR Sammy Watkins, points to the Ravens at least attempting to establish a passing attack. This combination of a highly mobile QB and a new focus on going to the air, creates challenging obstacles for Dobbins to achieve his ADP.
Dobbins finished 2020 as the RB24 and from week ten onward finished with two RB1 and four RB2 performances. It was an uphill battle to get touches and snaps until week 10, but when he did he gave owners reason for optimism. But not to the tune of being drafted ahead of the likes of Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliot and Aaron Jones in startups. He only eclipsed 20 fantasy points once in six of seven games he played post week 10. His average points per game in that time frame made him the RB16. The last five weeks of the season saw the Ravens rank 3rd in RB rushing attempts; however, Lamar Jackson played 92% of snaps in those five weeks versus the over 96% he played in the first ten weeks, coincidence? Lastly, from week 10 onward Dobbins was the teams number 1 fantasy RB four times, while his teammate Gus Edwards was the teams number one fantasy RB four times as well. This seems like way too muddy of a situation for a player being drafted to be your RB1 or potentially RB2 if you go robust RB early.
– Connor Donald (@Connorten)
WR COURTLAND SUTTON – DENVER BRONCOS
Oh what could have been? For a good chunk of the offseason, it looked as though the Green Bay Packers and reigning MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers were headed towards a messy divorce. The one team he seemed most often linked to, as well as the one that made a lot of sense, was the Denver Broncos. The Broncos boast a world-class defence and a tantalizingly solid collection of young, exciting skill position players and the addition of Rodgers would have instantly catapulted this team into Super Bowl contenders. Not to mention the type of high-scoring offense that fantasy owners would be salivating over getting a piece of. Unfortunately this didn’t come to fruition as the Packers caved in to Rodgers’ demands this past week, ensuring the all-pro signal caller would remain in Green Bay for at least the 2021 season. This leaves Denver with the unenviable decision to choose between the disappointing and inconsistent Drew Lock, or aging veteran game manager, and check down King Teddy Bridgewater as their starting quarterback. Like deflating the air out of a balloon, the fantasy outlook of the entire Broncos offense takes a big hit, regardless of who is under centre this year.
Currently being selected as the WR28, 63rd overall in dynasty startups, wide receiver Courtland Sutton is one player I will be avoiding in season long leagues. Not only will he be fighting for touches with Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and Javonte Williams, but he will be catching passes from either an inaccurate Lock (he of the 16-15 TD-INT ratio in 2020) or a short-armed Bridgewater (who’s notorious short-passing and check-down style does nothing to compliment Sutton’s 6’3 218 lb outside deep ball skills) Add to this the fact that Sutton is coming off a major knee injury, after tearing both his ACL and MCL this past September and there are enough red flags here for me to let someone else draft him. In the same price range as Sutton I would gladly take a veteran like Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay or Adam Theilen. I would also prefer the upside of similarly ranked youngsters such as Laviska Shenault, Jalen Waddle or Rashod Bateman. Until Denver addresses the quarterback position, Courtland Sutton is one player I am looking to avoid in 2021 fantasy leagues.
– Jesse Patterson (@df_patterson)
Thank you reading our article. Do you agree or disagree with any of the #EhTeam’s players to Stay Away from? Please leave a comment or message us on Twitter.
Editor: Joe Simonetti
Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)
