Fantasy Football Starts and Sits is back for Week 5, but first, let’s quickly revisit last week. Week 4 was a little more kind to me on the starts. Matty Ice delivered the big game. Jakobi Meyers and Noah Fant delivered strong performances. However, I struggled in the Sits department. Zeke showed me why you never doubt him and Marquise Brown is over his solo week of the dropsies.
Heading into Week 5 the record stands:
Starts: 8-16
Sits: 8-8
Overall: 16-24
Here we go with Starts and Sits Week 5!
Starts and Sits Week 5: Quarterback
Daniel Jones (vs. DAL) – START
Daniel Jones is currently the QB6. The terrible offensive line, Barkley’s slow start, and receivers injured up and down the depth chart be damned! My head is spinning just thinking about the forces working against him. Jones has produced 25-plus points in three of four games including two 30 point games. He’s throwing at an immense clip, 30-plus attempts in all four games. Plus he’s used his legs adding 20-plus yards on the ground in four games.
The Dallas Cowboys should control this game script. They score and move the ball at will, ranking fourth in points forced and third in total offensive yards. Despite their offense and leading the league in interceptions on defense, they give a plethora of passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. They have given up the second-most attempts and the most yards to quarterbacks! This includes the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks who have dropped two 20 point games and two 30 point games on the Cowboys.
Matt Ryan (vs. NYJ) – SIT
Matt Ryan was my start last week and one might think, wait, he’s facing the New York Jets. When you say Jets, you don’t get struck with fear. I get it. Not so fast though. The Jets are only allowing 16.8 points per game to the quarterback position. This despite three of those quarterbacks attempting over 30 passes. Even going back to Week 1, they haven’t allowed over 20 points to a quarterback in fantasy. Plus, they have allowed a grandiose three total touchdowns to signal-callers, passing or rushing.
This leads the NFL.
I’d be re-missed not to mention the offensive struggles of the Atlanta Falcons. The volume remains from last season with 35-plus pass attempts in all four games. Ryan has faced teams that ranked in the bottom six of the league versus quarterbacks over the last three weeks. He only threw for over 300 yards in one game and leaned on Cordarelle Patterson’s three TDs to help him get to 30 fantasy points last week. Ryan is facing a surprisingly tough defense in the Jets. Pair this with his struggles to produce against weaker teams versus the quarterback position and I’m back to avoiding him.
Starts and Sits Week 5: Running Back
Darrell Henderson (vs. SEA) – START
Well, Sean McVay, you have made me ever so slightly less skeptical of coach speak. McVay told us all along this was Henderson’s backfield if he was healthy. So far Henderson has been active in three of four games and he’s produced 15-plus PPR points in each game. He’s played 90% of snaps in two of those three games including last week where he saw 61 snaps. Despite being on a team that ranks 20th in rushing attempts, Henderson makes the most of his opportunities with an average of 4.9 yards-per-carry.
His targets are rising.
He’s seen 12 total red-zone touches.
All I see is fantasy gold.
I know Henderson is banged up and it’s a short week, but don’t fret. The Seattle Seahawks are like a busted dam against the run. They have the most rushing attempts against and they have given up the most rushing and receiving yards to running backs. Every team they have played has been able to establish a run game with no team having their lead rusher take less than 15 attempts. This includes Alexander Mattison who had 26 attempts and Trey Sermon last week who had 19.
Henderson has reached the pinnacle. If he’s in the Rams lineup, he better be in your fantasy lineups.
Cordarrelle Paterson, Kareem Hunt, Darrell Henderson, James Robinson, Zack Moss, Chase Edmonds
are all scoring more fantasy points per game than…
Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor
Oh, fantasy football, you are so random. 😆 pic.twitter.com/RNnMGQqLgv
— Michelle Magdziuk (@BallBlastEm) October 6, 2021
Zack Moss (vs. KC) – START
Zack Moss was a scratch in Week 1 and a majority of fantasy managers were worried. Well, worry no longer because Moss is running away with the Buffalo Bills running back job. He went from a 28% snap share in Week 2 to back-to-back weeks of 56% or 40-plus snaps.
Are we chasing touchdowns?
Maybe. But he does have a touchdown in all three games played on a team that is scoring at the second-highest clip in the NFL. Seems like touchdowns worth chasing to me.
Moss’ all-important red zone touches are astronomical with 16 total carries, including four inside the five-yard line. He doesn’t see a ton of targets which if he isn’t getting you a touchdown could limit his upside, but you could do worse in your flex spot.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has not been good against the run or the pass this season. This is likely headed towards being a high-scoring affair. The Chiefs have given up a 20 point fantasy total to a running back in three of four weeks. This includes a touchdown every week to the position as well.
Moss has the matchup to potentially wrack up yards, and this just might be a multi-touchdown game. This is a gimme RB2 with some very intriguing RB1 upside.
Broncos RBs (vs PIT) – SIT
I took my shot picking Melvin Gordon one week and Javonte Williams in another as starts. What I learned from that experience is that this 50/50 split is very real and not conducive to reliable fantasy output. Every week these two have been between 40 and 59% snap share with no clear leader in the clubhouse. Melvin Gordon has been a bit more consistent and is currently the RB18 averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry.
Javonte Williams on the other hand is the RB36 averaging 4.5 fewer fantasy points per game.
I combined them as sits not only because of the split, but they are facing a top-run defense in Week 5. The Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to allow a touchdown to ball carriers on the ground or through the air. Only one running back has scored over 12 fantasy points and that was Aaron Jones with 12.9.
They are giving up an average of 16.4 fantasy points per week to the position. Add in the split MelGo and Javonte will see and I’m cringing at the idea of starting either in even my flex spot.
Starts and Sits Week 5: Wide Receiver
LaViska Shenault (vs. TEN) – START
LaViska Shenault’s fantasy managers suffered through a frustrating start to the season after the young wideout put up just 12.9 points in Week 1. He also dropped a combined 10.5 receptions in Weeks 2 and 3. Nobody ever likes to see an injury, but DJ Chark is done for the season and Viska looks ready to step in.
Last week Shenault finished with seven targets that he turned into six receptions for 99 yards while taking second-most snaps at wide receiver for the first time this season. He trailed only Marvin Jones, who’s led the Jacksonville Jaguars’ receivers all season in snap share. He has seen seven-plus targets in three games plus he saw his first red-zone target last week. All arrows are trending sky-high for Shenault for the rest of the season.
Additionally, the Tennessee Titans have been a wreck on defense. This is especially true against wide receivers where they are giving out VIP memberships where they are currently tied with two other teams giving up 50-plus points a week to the position. They are giving up the most touchdowns to wideouts as well.
Not enough to sell you on Viska?
Okay. Well, they have also given up 19-plus fantasy points to two receivers in three of their four games. This Jags passing game will likely run through only two remaining fantasy-relevant receivers.
I’m sure you can find a flex spot to play Shenault in this juicy matchup.
Hunter Renfrow (vs. CHI) – START
Looks like Randy Moss, I mean Bryan Edwards, isn’t exactly giving us the breakout we wanted. Recently, Henry Ruggs has been a big play away each week from being relevant in fantasy. Then we have the true WR1 in Las Vegas, Hunter Renfrow.
Rolls right off the tongue, huh?
Renfrow leads Las Vegas Raiders’ wide receivers in targets with 30 and is the WR21 in fantasy with 14.7 points per game on average. That median is two points per game better than Ruggs. What you get with Renfrow is consistency. Six plus targets in all four games. Five plus receptions in all four games. And 45-plus yards in all four games.
Add in touchdowns in the last two for bonus points. He gives you a safe floor as a flex option.
This week the Raiders wide receivers get their easiest matchup so far in 2021. The Bears are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and have allowed 12-plus fantasy points to three wideouts in three of four games this year. Renfrow can likely deliver slightly better than his floor and finish as a low-end WR2. The matchup points to him being able to be closer or better than his 18.7 point performance two weeks ago.
High-end WR2?
Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. LAC) – SIT
Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns offense did not look good last week against the Minnesota Vikings. Something continues to feel off about the rapport between OBJ and Mayfield. In two weeks he’s seen 16 total targets but has only produced seven catches for 104 yards. That was against two teams who ranked in the bottom 12 of teams against wide receivers. The torn ACL could be hampering him, but no matter what I am avoiding him until I see something positive.
Especially this week.
The Los Angles Chargers are giving up the second-lowest points per game to wide receivers. Only one receiver has finished with more than 75 yards and only three receivers have made five or more catches. Lastly, they have allowed no wide receiver to score more than 20 fantasy points and only two have achieved 15 or more. Without Jarvis Landry to help draw some of the defensive secondary’s attention from OBJ, he is a complete avoid this week.
There is little upside in the situation or the matchup to play Beckham with any sort of confidence.
Starts and Sits Week 5: Tight End
Mike Gesicki (vs. TB) – START
After using Mike Gesicki in two out of four weeks as a sit, I may be warming up to the Penn State alum a bit. Brissett is letting the targets rain on Gesicki over the last two weeks with 18 total and is now tied for fifth in TE targets on the year. Gesicki has managed 18.6 and 16.7 fantasy points over those two weeks. Behind the arm of Brissett, he has posted a stat line of 15-143-1.
Players that have run more routes from an in-line position this year than Mike Gesicki
– Jeremy McNichols
– Taysom Hill
– Patrick Ricard
– Quez Watkins
– Aaron Jones (yes, that Aaron Jones)Gesicki has lined up at WR for 94% of his snaps. He’s just barely a tight end. I guess.
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) October 6, 2021
Could things play anymore into Gesicki’s favor?
Why yes it can.
Keeping things in Florida for Week 5, he is facing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that can’t seem to figure out how to stop anyone who catches a football. They are giving up the third-most fantasy points on average to the position. They have allowed a tight end to put up 10-plus fantasy points in all four weeks. Plus they have allowed three different tight ends to score a touchdown in the last two weeks.
Despite our love, hate relationship, I will love Gesicki for this week thanks to this juicy matchup and the bountiful amounts of targets he’s bound to see.
George Kittle (vs. ARI) – SIT
George Kittle owners are likely frustrated with the early output. He has managed only one game over 12 fantasy points after mustering up ten total in his last fairly healthy season of 2019. The targets are beginning to rise, but a banged-up Kittle is not dropping the top tight end numbers we are accustomed to. His catch percentage has dropped over ten percent, which certainly isn’t helping the case.
Kittle should turn things around, but I fear it won’t be this week.
The Arizona Cardinals are the third-best team against the tight end position and have not allowed over 100 yards total to a TE through four weeks.
Furthermore, they have not allowed a touchdown either.
Worse yet, only one tight end has eclipsed five fantasy points and zero have reached ten fantasy points. Sure it hasn’t exactly been the cream of the crop that they faced, but they are an athletic bunch over the middle of the field. After this week Kittle and the 49ers go on their bye and this is where I can see Kittle getting better and coming out in his peak form.
