Week 4 - Puff, Puff, Pass

Welcome to week 4! My name is Josh ‘Smokey-Hell’ Nelson (@TNFF_Smokey) and this is “Puff Puff Pass,” my weekly start/sit article where I advise you on which players you should start and "puff" up the points in your starting line-up, or who you should sit and “pass” on down to your bench. Follow along every week to boost your knowledge and to gain an edge on your opponents.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

I’ll admit it. I was wrong about Josh Allen. He was someone I came into the season with who I had an ADP on much lower than the consensus (I believe I had him at QB17). So far, he has proven me wrong, averaging 40.17 fantasy points per game, which is semi-ridiculous. Granted, his opposition has been the Jets, Dolphins and Rams, but if you can’t produce against them …

Buffalo faces the Las Vegas Raiders, who have been allowing teams to drop an average of 30 points against them, and Buffalo’s run game has been less than spectacular. Expect Allen to continue rolling with some passing TDs and perhaps a rushing one as well.

Verdict - PUFF

Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

Sean McVay has got the Rams back in their offensive groove and Goff has been slinging the ball enough to land him 8th overall in passing yards league-wide. The Rams are running the third highest rate of three WR formations as they are leaning on the passing game. After a heartbreaking loss to the Bills last week, you can bet the Rams will come out swinging and talk about punching down, they match up against the New York Giants. This is like Mike Tyson vs. Glass Joe (reference from the awesome 80's Nintendo video game) and everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth. I believe the Rams are going to lay their second beatdown on an NFC East opponent in the last three weeks this Sunday afternoon.

Verdict - PUFF

Teddy Bridgewater (Carolina Panthers)

Arizona’s defense has been much better than expected this season and Teddy, well, Teddy has not. Averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, according to lineups.com, Teddy Two Gloves is at the helm of an offense with a lot of new pieces still finding their way. Add in the fact that defenses don’t have Christian McCaffrey to worry about to Teddy’s lower ranked offensive line in front of him, and that equals a hard pass for me this week.

Verdict - PASS

Running Backs

David Johnson (Houston Texans)

Another name I did not expect to be writing in here, but 2020 has been an interesting year, am I right? The Vikings have been a Minnesota trash heap, ranking near last in the majority of defensive statistical categories. Johnson has been flying under the radar, putting up respectable numbers against some of the top teams in the league the first three weeks (Saquon-esque numbers against Pittsburgh’s defense) and now he has a chance for a statement game against a softball opponent. If I had a bigger set of … ahem … convictions, I would have more shares of David Johnson and play him this week with confidence.

Verdict - PUFF

Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)

I’m a be dodging some hate mail on this one. Mixon is a very divisive name amongst the fantasy community right now, and I can understand why. However, I am on the side of getting every share of him I can. The talent is undeniable, we’ve seen it on display before and he has arguably his best QB ever. However, Giovanni Bernard’s mustache has some sort of powerful leverage against Zac Taylor because he is vulturing into what should be Mixon’s opportunities. I am calling it now though, get Mixon while you can because he will not get any cheaper once he has a big blow-up game against a team allowing the 25th most rushing yards in the Jacksonville Jaguars. My bold call is Mixon for 2 TDs and 82 yards.

Verdict – PUFF

(For more Joe Mixon info, check out Brian’s @TheFFAviator article at TNFF here)

David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)

Yes, Tarik Cohen has been placed on season-ending IR. While there should be an increase in market share in the offense, he will also command more attention from defenses and what a defense he faces this week. The mighty Indianapolis Colts are the third ranked defense according to lineups.com, and have limited opponents' total run games to an average of 93.3 yards per game. Montgomery is only averaging 1.2 yards before contact, and for this game, I don’t think it’ll be many more after contact.

Verdict - PASS

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Wide Receivers

Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Remember when people were fading Evans this off-season after Tom Brady signed in Tampa Bay? That was fun. Evans has been one of Brady’s favourite red zone weapons, scoring a TD every week so far, including two last week. Recommending a skill position player against the Chargers is not something I would usually do. But like so many fantasy rosters, the Chargers’ defense has suffered some big injuries. I think Brady is going to put on a clinic against the young Justin Herbert as a welcome to the league, with Evans being the prime recipient. Bank on the Brady/Evans connection to continue the TD streak this week against the Chargers.

Verdict – PUFF

Marquise Brown (Baltimore Ravens)

Hollywoooooooood! Man, what a stinker the Ravens put up last week on Monday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. I mean, it WAS against the reigning Super Bowl Champions, but they made them look impotent. Nothing like a bitter defeat to blue pill your way to victory the following week. Last week aside, Brown has been seeing not only an increase in snap percentage but his catch percentage has dramatically improved over his last season’s percentages. He has yet to put a TD on the board and I think this is his get right week. I considered making Lamar a Puff, but c’mon, you’re starting Lamar Jackson no matter the opponent. Might as well play his #1 receiver too.

Verdict - PUFF

Mike Williams (Los Angeles Chargers)

The fact that he sat out practice because of a hamstring issue should be more than concerning to people with shares of Williams. He has barely been worth starting to this point, averaging 5.6 fantasy points per game (yes, that is in a PPR scoring format). Even if he does play, what are we really expecting going up against a Top seven defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? He would be best used as a distraction if he hits the field to draw some coverage and keep the defense honest. Fade away like MJ.

Verdict - PASS

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Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)

Andrews is one of those select TEs that doubles as his team’s top receiver. He’s a true threat for a multi-TD game weekly, with a top 10 contested catch rate and second overall red zone targets league wide at the position, according to playerprofiler.com. Like I mentioned with Hollywood Brown, I believe this is the Raven’s get right game and I expect the receiving game to smash, with the three-headed Cerebus of the run game picking up the pieces.

Verdict - PUFF

Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers)

Don’t look now, but it appears Aaron Rodgers has let someone new into the circle of trust. Tonyan is a great separator and makes the most of the targets that come his way, going 5-for-5 last game with a TD. With Davante Adams still dealing with a hamstring injury and not guaranteed to suit up, there are going to be a lot of vacated targets to soak up. Tonyan has proven to be able to get the job done so far and I do not see that stopping this week.

Verdict - PUFF

Chris Herndon (New York Jets)

Woe be unto those forced to have to start Herndon in their line-ups. Averaging a paltry 6.1 fantasy points per game, Herndon leaves little to be desired. Frankly, there really isn’t many pieces to desire on the Jets, especially in redraft. Do I really need to pontificate on the futility of the Adam Gase led Jets? Don’t start Herndon. There’s no caveat here. Don’t start him. For realsies.

Verdict - PASS

Thank you for reading my "Puff, Puff, Pass" article for week 4. Do you agree or disagree with any of my starts and sits? Please leave a comment or let me know @TNFF_Smokey

Editor: Joe Simonetti (@joesimonetti77)

Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)