Good W.I.L.L Hunting - Week 12

Every Tuesday, @TrueNorthFFB's very own Will Harris @itsharristime will be providing you with his W.I.L.L (Weekly Insights to Lead Your League). He’ll provide an in-depth positional look at the top waiver wire adds of theweek that are rostered on less than 40% of Yahoo leagues. @itsharristime will also give you three Professor Lambeau Picks just in case you cannot get the recommended waiver add for each position. How Bout Dem’ Apples looks at the stat lines of last week’s waiver wire insights and how @itsharristime fared.

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr- rostered @ 32%, Las Vegas Raiders

Recency bias is something the fantasy community falls victim to when it comes to player valuations, expected performance and weekly rankings. Derek Carr is a prime example of this as his rostership numbers are nearly criminally low (32%). Has Carr potentially disappointed fantasy footballers in the past? Yes. Do we need to lower expectations? Perhaps. After all, he is currently the QB17 on the year. Does any of this matter with a prime matchup against the Atlanta Falcons next week? No.

So, what if Derek Carr hasn’t become the next big thing or a franchise QB. What he is doing is winning games for the Raiders (6-4) and putting up fantasy points while doing it. Even though Carr has failed to put up 300+ throwing yards in his last 5 games, he’s nearly a lock to hit that milestone in Week 12 against the Falcons. The Falcons give up an AVERAGE of 322.6 passing yards to opposing QBs and have allowed 26.80 f/pts per game. Prime conditions in Atlanta should allow YAC machine Darren Waller and newly anointed WR1 Nelson Agholor do their thing against a weak Atlanta secondary.

You also won’t hate the fact that Carr has the hapless Jets in Week 13 as well, giving you two solid streaming weeks before he faces the Colts.

Professor Lambeau’s Picks

• Alex Smith - 10%, Washington Football Team

• Daniel Jones - 28%, New York Giants

• Teddy Bridgewater - 39% - Carolina Panthers

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard - rostered @19%, Dallas Cowboys

We’ve come to the point of the season where calculated gambles on players, especially ones with talent, might pay off for the fantasy playoffs. It’s about getting ahead of trends and using vacant roster spots (if you have them) to their fullest potential.

The highest potential and possible biggest payoff is banking on players with proven upside who are awaiting the opportunity to show what they can do. Enter Tony Pollard who, in the above Tweet, shows you what he can do when given the ball in open space. Per touch, Pollard continues to be one of the most electric and effective running backs in the league. In 2019 Pollard was #5 among qualified RBs with a 5.3 yard per carry (YPC). Given opportunity, Pollard made the most of it, logging 3 games of over 17 f/pts on a snap share of less than 20%.

With the Dallas stretch run now upon us, and the NFC East firmly entrenched in a gross 4 way tie for the division lead, anything is possible in the Dallas backfield. Do the Cowboys feel that they are the best team to lead the NFC Least into the playoffs? Does Pollard get extra looks as the coaching staff feels that he gives them the best chance to win? Or potentially it goes the other way and Dallas starts a Cleveland-esque style tank job and starts giving Pollard more touches to potentially be a trade piece in the offseason.

Whatever way it shakes out, Pollard’s upside trumps any other player's immediate production on the waiver wire. Or there is always the ageless wonder in Frank Gore. You decide.

Professor Lambeau’s Picks

• Frank Gore - 10%, New York Jets

• James White - 40%, New England Patriots

• Cam Akers - 30%, Los Angeles Rams

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WIDE RECEIVER

Nelson Agholor - rostered @ 19%, Las Vegas Raiders

I promise you that this isn’t a Las Vegas Raiders hype piece article. As a fantasy football manager all you want to do is win, and if adding Nelson Agholor to your rosters is what puts you over the top, then you add him. It’s simply smart roster management.

When Agholor was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1st round (20th overall) of the 2015 draft, he checked almost all the boxes we look for in a prospect. He had incredible measurables (85th percentile speed score), was fresh off a 1000+ yard and 12 TD season at USC, and was going into an Eagles situation that had the opportunity to provide him with volume. However, things didn't pan out with the Eagles and the Agholor memes are almost as famous as his predisposal for drops.

Agholor was an absolute afterthought for fantasy teams when the Raiders signed him behind veteran Tyrell Williams and highly touted rookies in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards.

Fast forward to Week 12, and Agholor is 3rd on the Raiders in targets, and leads the group with a healthy 18.5 yards per reception. In two negative game scripts against Tampa (L20-45) and against Kansas City last week (L 31-35), Carr has gone to Agholor with 9 targets on both occasions. Carr is going to Agholor deep (#2 in average target depth) when the Raiders are in shootout mode.

As highlighted with Carr in the QB waiver section, this Atlanta team gives up the most yardage to QBs and the 3rd most fantasy points to WR.

Let’s not think too hard on this. Go and add Agholor and flush your recent bias down the toilet on your way to a championship.

Professor Lambeau’s Picks

• Damiere Byrd - 2%, New England Patriots

• Tim Patrick - 21%, Denver Broncos

• Russell Gage - 7%, Atlanta Falcons

TIGHT END

Dalton Schultz- rostered @21%, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy football, meet your #10 overall PPR tight end on the season, Dalton Schultz.

Schultz has been steady as you can ask for in the TE department since off-season darling Blake Jarwin went down with a season ending knee injury in Week 1. Being #10 isn’t saying a whole lot for the tight end position this year, as the difference between TE 10 and TE 21 is a whole 3 pts/game.

What is important to note about Schultz though is that he is seeing volume. Over the last three games he’s averaged 7 targets a game and, we’ve seen Andy Dalton in the past make TE’s fantasy relevant with the likes of Tyler Eifert, Gary Barnidge and C.J Uzomah during his time in Cincinnati.

With Dallas very much in the race for a division title, I expect Dalton to continue to target Schultz, and when Schultz does score a touchdown, he’s in the TE1 territory for the week.

To be honest, Schultz should have been on your radar already if you were in need of TE help. Lock him in this week for the stretch run and the playoffs where he sees plus matchups vs Cincinnati Week 14, and the Eagles in Week 16.

Dalton Schultz may just be the holiday gift that you never knew you needed.

Professor Lambeau’s Picks

• Jordan Aikins - 2%, Houston Texans

• Trey Burton - 17%, Indianapolis Colts

• Jordan Reed. - 19%, San Francisco 49ers

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HOW ABOUT DEM' APPLES

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings - 28.96 f/pts, 314 Yds, 3 TDs

Salvon Ahmed, RB, Miami Dolphins - 7.4 f/pts, 43 Yds

Jakeem Grant, WR, Miami Dolphins - 3.50 f/pts, 12 Yds,6 targets, 2 receptions

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team - 2.80 f/pts, 6 Yds, 5 targets, 2 receptions

Thank you for reading my waiver wire article. Make sure to come back next week and please leave a comment or message me on Twitter @itsharristime

Editor: Joe Simonetti (@joesimonetti77)

Graphic work: Dan Made Graphics (@DanMadeGraphics)