True North Fantasy Football is back as we power on into the second half of the NFL season. Our very own Connor Donald is here with his Fantasy Football Starts and SIts for Week 10. Before we dive in, you can check out his article from last week here.
We are officially heading down the backstretch of the 2021 NFL season. Most fantasy playoffs are just around the corner.
Starts and sits are becoming even more important! So let’s get into it.
Starts: 21-33
Sits: 24-12
Overall: 45-45
I stand at .500 through the first 9 weeks.
Ben Roethlisberger cannot be trusted in fantasy anymore.
I took a deep shot on wide receivers and it didn’t work.
Clearly it’s all about the sits and less about starts.
Hello week 10. Let’s go!
Starts and Sits for Week 10: Quarterback
Trevor Lawerance (vs. IND) START
Lawerance is banged up, but should be good to go this week against Indy. Which is good for TLaw owners as the Colts are the easiest team he’ll face to date in regards to teams against fantasy quarterbacks!
The Colts are allowing 26.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This ranks 2nd worst and one of only four teams allowing over 25 points per game. Three quarterbacks have failed to eclipse 20 points: Davis Mills, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett. Of the remaining six, five of them achieved 25 or more.
Draftkings Sportsbook has the matchup at a healthy 47.5 over/under plus the Colts favored by 10 points. Lawerance will likely be pushed to the air in this matchup.
Lawerance has certainly been spotty in his play and frustrating for owners with sky high expectations. He has managed 20 points three times this season. After throwing 7 interceptions in the first three weeks of the season, he’s throwing two in the last five. In that same time frame, he’s only managed three touchdowns.
If Lawerance can find the end zone, continue to limit his turnovers against the Colts and the game script prevails over last weeks field goal festival. He has a great chance this week to give you his 2nd top 12 quarterback showing of the season!
Ryan Tannehill (vs. NO) SIT
Tannehill hasn’t been as people will have you think this season for fantasy. He’s currently the QB11 and has three top 12 showings. Unfortunately, on a weekly basis he is volatile and gives you more QB2 or 3 play. He’s put up 20 plus in 5 games. However, he’s only put up multiple touchdowns in two games.
When the Titans get on the door step they prefer to leave it in the hands of a running back. This is causing the biggest frustration with Tannehill. He had double the touchdown rate last season as compared to this season.
The DK Sportsbooks have the game at a 44.5 over/under which is unsurprising given the two teams above average defenses.
The Saints have allowed back to back 30 point quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. They have been up and down against quarterbacks, but given the existing history on Tannehill this season, I’m skeptical.
Most quarterbacks who had success had multi touchdown outings, something Tannehill hasn’t done much of. Or put up mass yardage, 300+, which Tannehill has done only once this season. To expect one or both from Tannehill, the odds are very much stacked against you.
Starts and Sits for Week 10: Running Back
Jordan Howard (vs. DEN) START
The Eagles offense seems to be finding an identity. What a surprise, it involves utilizing the run game! Who would have thought?
Howard has played 25% and 40% of snaps over the last two weeks since Sanders went down with his injury. Despite those numbers he is taking full advantage of each snap. Howard has 13 touches in the red zone in two weeks. By the end of this week he should be the team leader in red zone touches as he is one behind Gainwell. He has managed three touchdowns in the last two weeks plus 50 yards or more in those two games. Good for back to back top 24 showings.
The Broncos are 10th best against fantasy running backs. They forced the Cowboys to abandon the run last week and started the season off with three games of 10 or less points. This leads to some skewing of their average. They allowed 4 straight 15 plus point fantasy performances to running backs prior to last week, three of which were over 20.
Philadelphia should hold true to their use of the run game and the Broncos ailing pass defense. This should give Howard continued opportunities. Howard should give you another top 24 showing, with the potential for top 12 depending on how often the Eagles reach the red zone. Giving some bye weeks and injuries, you could do worse.
D’Ernest Johnson (vs. NE) START
Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton are both on the Covid list and have their Sundays in doubt. This leaves the door wide open for the one, the only, D’Ernest Johnson! Who would have thought a second opportunity would come around to roll your Johnson shares out?
The Browns have continued to use the run game despite losing Chubb and Hunt at varying points of the season. Johnson stepped in week 7 against the Broncos as the lead back and went off for 22/146/1 on the ground and 2/22 through the air. And has since disappeared behind Chubb.
This week if Chubb is a no go, start him everywhere against the Patriots. The Patriots this season have been middle of the pack against fantasy running backs, but over the last three weeks are third worst. One of three teams in the last 3 weeks to allow 30 or more on average. Last week they gave up 14.6 to CMC who played 49% of snaps. The three weeks before that 18 plus points to the three teams RB1.
It’s rare lightning strikes twice, but it potentially may this weekend for Johnson managers!
D’Andre Swift (vs. PIT) SIT
This is likely one Swift managers will laugh at and scroll by. Let’s just consider for a minute though.
The Steelers rank 4th against fantasy running backs, allowing 18.5 points per game. They haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown to running backs and have allowed the second lowest number of rushing touchdowns, 2. Only one running back, Alex Collins, has managed over 15 fantasy points against them. In 7 of 8 weeks they have allowed a running back 10 to 12 points.
So sure Swift probably has a safe floor sitting just outside the top 24. That’s not what you want from someone who will take up an RB spot, that’s a flex play.
Swift has played well and is seeing over 18 opportunities a game. Including ranking top 5 across the board in receiving, something the Steelers don’t allow much of from running backs. His o-line hasn’t been great, which has led to a putrid 3.2 yards per carry.
The cocktail brewing is not in favour of Swift this week.
Starts and Sits for Week 10: Wide Receiver
Rashod Bateman (vs. MIA) START
Rashod Bateman has seen 6 or more targets in the three weeks since returning from injury. He’s also holding steady at a 65% snap count that could continue to creep up. He’s had 50 yards or more in two straight weeks. There is so much playing into the first round picks favour, it’s time to start taking him seriously in fantasy lineups.
And if things weren’t trending nicely enough for him. He’s facing the Miami Dolphins this weekend, a team that is fourth worst on average against fantasy wide receivers.
If we look at the last 5 weeks alone they are the worst against wide receivers allowing over 50 points per game. The only team in the last 5 weeks allowing such a score. In that same time frame they are allowing the most yards and touchdowns to the position.
Feels like a good week to roll Bateman out and potentially see him grab that first score of his rookie season.
Jamal Agnew (vs. IND) START
OK so this one I debated over and over again, but just can’t talk myself out of it. Agnew is seeing such a rich opportunity share since Chark went down its hard to ignore. Plus the match up to boot this week!
Let’s start with the matchup. The Colts are fifth worst against fantasy wide receivers. Allowing 41.8 points per game and giving up the most touchdowns to the position. A team’s top wide receiver has yet to score less than 15 points against this secondary. They are also riding a three game streak of 20 plus point fantasy performances for a team’s top receiver.
Now, Agnew. He has largely been the WR3 based on snap count, only outplayed Laviska Shenault in one of four games since Chark got hurt. However, over the last three games Agnew has seen 23 total targets. This is tops on the team with Marvin Jones and Dan Arnold at 22.
Prior to last weeks field goal extravaganza against Buffalo, he had seen 10 points or more for three straight weeks. Making at least five catches in all three and finding the end zone against Seattle two weeks ago. The first time this season.
You likely won’t get another chance to roll Agnew out with this type of confidence until week 14 against the 32nd ranked team against wide receivers, the Titans. If you snagged him off waivers due to his target count or potential opportunity. Look no further then a prime matchup against the Colts.
DJ Moore (vs. ARI) SIT
Oh my poor Moore. Why must you be punished? As a big fan of DJM, this hurts, but the matchup sucks. And even though Darnold is out of the equation for now, I’m scared to see what the future holds.
Oddly enough Moore is having his best fantasy season by average game output of 15.8 points. However, expectations were higher for him and Darnold. Despite a pretty fast start, he’s failed to reach his average output in 5 straight games including three of those five failing to reach 10 points. Oh no. Oh boy.
Insert the Arizona Cardinals who on the season rank in the middle of the pack against fantasy wide receivers. But over the last five weeks rank 7th best, allowing less then 30 points to the position. There’s been a spatter of good games for receivers like Aiyuks 20.7 last week. Peoples-Jones literal hail mary 26.1 point effort.
Generally, wide receivers have struggled with only five able to eclipse 75 yards and only 5 touchdowns allowed to the position over the last five weeks. Two to Cobb and two for Peoples-Jones.
Sorry Moore. But until the Panthers offense shows me more, the only Panther worth playing is Run CMC!
Starts and Sits for Week 10: Tight End
Mike Gesicki (vs. BAL) START
To say things haven’t gone as expected for the Miami Dolphins this year would be an understatement. Offensively their weapons have been banged up or underperformed minus one man. Tight end Mike Gesicki.
Gesicki is currently the WR3 on the season. He’s posted 4 top 12 performances and outside of week one has remained a top 20 tight end. I know what is top 20 worth, well at a volatile position like tight end consistency is key!
He’s seen 6 or more targets in 7 games. Also putting up 50 yards or more in five games, 3 other games he was over 40 yards. Opportunity is there. And he is capitalizing on that opportunity.
The Ravens are the 5th worst team against fantasy tight ends on a per game basis. They are allowing 16.2 points per week. Three tight ends have gone over 20 and five have managed 10 or more points. Six tight ends have eclipsed 40 yards in a game, right in Gesickis wheel house.
It’s not like Gesicki has much competition for targets. Plus the matchup plays right into his favour.
Tyler Higbee (vs. SF) SIT
Here is a name I haven’t addressed in a while. Probably because he has been relegated to the backseat of the Rams receiving game.
The 49ers rank 8th best against fantasy tight ends giving up 9.4 points per week. Only one tight end managed 50 yards and that was in week one. Since week one only two tight ends have managed 10 points and none made it over 13.
Higbee himself has reached 15 points once this season. Last week he reached 10 points for the first time since week 3. While he has managed 5 receptions in 5 games this season and 5 or more targets in 6 games. The matchup just isn’t great despite potential opportunity.
Higbee is hanging out right near TE12 this season and I’d rather find a TE with boom potential. Pivot to a guy like Pat Freiermuth, Cole Kmet or Dalton Schultz. There is boom potential and upside to be had!
– Connor Donald
Follow Connor on Twitter @connorten.
Also, be sure to check out Connor and Jim Nastic on this week’s episode of The Gold Jacket Podcast when they were joined by Kyle Senra of GoingFor2!
