We are at the halfway mark of the NFL Season. Can you believe it? It feels like just yesterday people were all over Twitter blowing up training camp rumours and beat reports. It’s time for your Week 9 Starts and Sits!
Week 8 was a great week for my wide receiver starts and for my four sits. What else did we learn from my starts and sits?
The Eagles running back situation is weird. It feels like Nick Sirianni thinks Boston Scott and Jordan Howard > Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. I’ll never understand this Eagles offense in 2021. Maybe next year.
Michael Pittman Jr. is stud!
Healthy Deebo Samuel is a monster and a fantasy blessing!
Teddy will Teddy in Denver, even when the matchup is a near slam dunk. The Broncos need a new quarterback to maximize those offensive weapons!
My results heading to week 9:
Starts: 20-28
Sits: 21-11
Total: 41-39
Quarterback:
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CHI) START
Boy this feels weird. Big Ben is currently the QB27 on the season. He has yet to finish a week better than QB17 for fantasy. Well, this week is the week he finally makes it into the top 12!
His 2 touchdowns in week 5 against the Broncos was his only multiple touchdown performance of the season. He’s only managed 20 fantasy points two times through 7 games and neither was over 21, so his ceiling has been limited. If you have held on or are looking for a streaming start, let’s take the plunge together.
The Chicago Bears defense has been OK against quarterbacks. They have allowed 20 or more fantasy points to a quarterback in five of eight games this season. This includes a string of three straight games where quarterbacks went over 25 fantasy points. While it’s not the most beautiful matchup, it should be more than enough to make Roethlisberger fantasy relevant. Even if just for one week.
Jalen Hurts (vs. LAC) SIT
Before last week, Jalen Hurts was enjoying life as a QB1 with seven straight top 12 appearances. Hurts ended up the QB24 in week 8 as the running attack took over against the Detroit Lions. Hurts’ managers likely want to write it off as a one off, but the matchup this week leaves something to be desired for Hurts.
The Chargers are allowing the second fewest points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. Only two have managed to get over 20 points in seven games.
Quarterbacks who like to use their legs, similar to Hurts, also haven’t found much success on the ground. The Chargers allowed Lamar Jackson 51 yards and Mahomes 45 yards, no other quarterback has managed 20 yards. They also haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback up to this point.
Don’t expect Hurts to get back on track this week against a stout Chargers team against fantasy quarterbacks.
Running back:
Damien Harris (vs. CAR) START
I debated using Chuba Hubbard over Damien Harris as my first start. Sure, the Panthers are strong against the run. However, a Draftkings Sportsbook over/under of 41 points, the second lowest of the week 9 matchups, has me seeing this as a game for Bill Belichick to ground and pound his way to an ugly win.
Harris has been extremely hot over the last four weeks as Belichick’s clear leader for ground work in the backfield. Harris has seen 14 or more rushing attempts in four straight weeks and six of eight weeks this season. He has also found the end zone in four straight contests, scoring five total touchdowns in that span. In those same four games he has seen 20 red zone touches!
I wouldn’t fault you for starting Hubbard in this spot if you have him! Consider both Hubbard and Harris starts. I had to take the hottest of two players and it’s clear Bill trusts and will put the ball in Harris’ hands with volume.
Myles Gaskin (vs. HOU) START
#Dolphins Week 8 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Myles Gaskin – 16
Salvon Ahmed – 9
Patrick Laird – 1— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 1, 2021
Oh no. Don’t tell me we are going back to the gas station! Oh yes we are.
The Houston Texans are, insert synonym for bad or funny comment about how terrible they are here! They rank 9th in points per game allowed to the running back position in fantasy and they’ve given up the most yards on the ground to RBs, as the only team to surpass 1000. The last time a team’s lead running back didn’t put up 10 fantasy points against them was week 1. They have also allowed a touchdown to a running back in all but two weeks.
Gaskin has been infuriating for managers. However, he is still the RB17 on the year due to the volatile and injury filled running back landscape. Opportunity is knocking this week and there may be few opportunities to put faith in Gaskin as the season winds down. Especially with one of the bottom 10 playoff strength of schedules.
Khalil Herbert (vs. PIT) SIT
The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t good, but there is one thing the Steelers seem to know how to do. Stop the run.
Herbert had back to back strong games before putting up a dud against San Francisco last week. Despite having over 70 yards for the fourth straight game, he had 8.8 fantasy points. Herbert continues to produce in the yardage department on the ground but without a score or a healthy target share, he can become tough to trust. In week six he needed a touchdown to reach 19.2 fantasy points., and in week seven he had five receptions with no scores but only hit 18.3 fantasy points.
The Steelers rank 7th best in points per game allowed to running backs at 19.6. Only two running backs have managed over 12 fantasy points against them and one had 12.9. They’ve given up 10 points to a team’s lead fantasy back in 6 of 7 weeks. There may be a safe flex floor, but I’m looking to provide a top 24 running back with top 12 upside. Herbert isn’t that guy for me this week.
Wide Receiver:
Nico Collins (vs. MIA) START
Time to have some fun! There are some nice matchups for wide receivers this week, but I’d be remiss if I only gave you the obvious Brandin Cooks or Cooper Kupp plays.
Nico Collins since coming back from injury has seen 4 or more targets in all three games. He’s settling in nicely as the second receiving option for the Texans. He’s also seeing a top 10 HOG rate among wide receivers per playerprofiler.com. He sees a target nearly every 5 snaps played at 19.5%.
Opportunity, check. Matchup, major check! Tyrod Taylor potentially back at QB…
The Miami Dolphins are really bad against fantasy receivers allowing the third most points per game to the position. Including the third most yards and third most touchdowns allowed. They’re also presently riding a streak of four straight games where three wide receivers on their opponents team has scored 10 or more fantasy points.
Van Jefferson (vs. TENN) START
It’s official, DeSean Jackson was waived by the Rams. This opens up the door a bit for Van Jefferson as the third receiving option for the Rams. Sure, it may just be a couple more opportunities, but considering Jefferson is one play away from being a top 24 WR every week. It’s gold!
Jefferson is producing as a major big play waiting to happen with 16.3 yards per reception. His already healthy 22.2% of his team’s Air Yards is likely to increase as well. He’s produced four fantasy weeks over 10 points and two over 15 so far. Not bad for a guy with a 14.5% target share.
The Titans are the team to pick a wide receiver against almost every week for fantasy. This week, it’s a no brainer! You roll out all of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson! The Titans are the worst, dead last, against wide receivers. Giving up the third most touchdowns and most yards to the position. They have also allowed 11 wide receivers to put up 70 or more yards against them.
Stafford and his wide receivers have been red hot and scoring at will. It’s hard to justify sitting any of the trio this week in such a juicy matchup.
Mike Williams (vs. PHI) SIT
Mike Williams exploded to start the season with 3 straight 22 plus point fantasy performances. He has in the last four weeks produced a 36.5 point outing and three games where he was unable to even get five total fantasy points. That includes two straight weeks with only two receptions. Ouch!
The Philadelphia Eagles don’t strike fear into anybody as a football team. However, their ability to defend against wide receivers in fantasy is top 3 in the NFL. That’s right, they are one of three teams not allowing more than 30 points per game to the wide receiver position. This is due to likely a couple factors. They are really bad in the middle of the field with their short and intermediate game, against running backs and tight ends. Teams jump out to early and significant leads against them. Most importantly, they do not like to give up big pass plays working to keep receivers in front of them at all times.
Tyreek Hill had 47 points and Antonio Brown put up 24. Outside of those two receivers, none have managed more than 20 points. In fact, only one other has even managed 15 fantasy points against the Eagles. Mike Williams is a complete avoid this week with his ugly trending performance and this week’s equally ugly matchup. I would even likely lean away from Keenan Allen in this situation, as difficult as it may be.
Tight End:
Dallas Goedert (vs. LAC) START
Dallas Goedert has now had 70 yards in back-to-back games since the Zach Ertz trade.
— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaroNBCS) October 31, 2021
I know, I know. I came to the well last week with Hunter Henry facing a weak Chargers’ defense against fantasy tight ends. Things didn’t go so well. But that’s not going to stop me from coming back with another formidable tight end!
The Chargers are giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to the tight end position at 17.3. Prior to last week they were riding a brutal streak of four straight weeks giving up a 15 point or better tight end. This included touchdowns allowed in four straight. Of course the duo of Henry and Jonnu Smith dropped a combined 7.3 fantasy points on the Chargers. I don’t believe we should expect this as a new positive trend.
Dallas Goedert is now the #1 tight end in Philly and has become an early favorite target of Jalen Hurts. Over the last two weeks he has seen five or more targets, 70 or more yards and, most importantly, 10 or more fantasy points.
The Chargers are the best against fantasy wide receivers, which means Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins will likely be due for a long night. The Chargers are similar to the Eagles in their inability to handle running backs and tight ends. The arrow seems to be pointing in the direction of a game similar to what we saw the Eagles play against the Lions. Lots of running and targets to the tight end, Dallas Goedert!
Kyle Pitts (vs. NO) SIT
Here come the pitchforks! The Kyle Pitts Army may be out in full force against me on this one.
On the Gold Jacket Podcast I had mentioned my concerns for the rest of season for a rookie tight end, playing a lot on the outside and not having that elite WR1 across from him to take defensive pressure off him. Sure, Ridley wasn’t playing at an elite level this year, but you can’t deny the need to account for him at all times on the field and having your best corner shadowing him. Things start out with a pretty steep challenge with the New Orleans Saints this week for Kyle Pitts.
The Saints rank 4th worst against wide receivers in per game fantasy average, but 6th best against tight ends. It will certainly depend on where Kyle Pitts lines up as to the potential success he will have, but this doesn’t feel like a game where I can have confidence in Pitts. He had back to back 20 point outings against Miami and the Jets, two weak defenses. Before dropping a 3 against a respectable Panthers defense.
The Saints are definitely an above average defense and the combination of linebackers and defensive backs should be able to make Pitts night fairly tough. Sure the targets will be there. Where else will they go? But what Pitts does with them is going to be the true story of fantasy managers. Look at last week 6 targets for a 2/13 line. There is reason to pump the breaks and watch matchups carefully with Pitts going forward.
Follow Connor on Twitter @connorten and don’t miss him on Tuesday nights with Jim Nastic on the Gold Jacket Podcast!
