Was it because of the bye-apocalypse and some other players had to step up and be top 12 or top 24 at their position? Maybe. But I had my best week since starting this click, click, bait! The best news? Were back with Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 8.
4-2 on my starts and 3-1 on my sits!
What did we learn this week from my misses?
- For starters, the Chicago Bears may have an interesting duo with David Montgomery upon his return and Khalil Herbert. Oh, and despite the situation in the Bears backfield looking promising, their aerial attack is very… uh-oh!
- Chuba Hubbard is good, but nobody can replace Christian McCaffrey in that Carolina Panthers offense.
On to Week 8 we go and the record stands:
Starts: 18-24
Sits: 17-11
Overall: 35-35
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 8: Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater (vs. WFT) START
Is it Christmas already? Teddy Bridgewater likely has Jerry Jeudy back this week and a matchup against the worst team versus fantasy quarterbacks! Bridgewater certainly hasn’t captivated managers with his fantasy play. He is the QB19 on the season and has only managed a top 12 finish twice this season. He has 20+ points in four of seven starts and only one game where he dropped below 12. He’s a safe play, which for fantasy is more a straight face emoji rather than a celebration emoji.
Well, managers never fear the time to celebrate has arrived. The Football Team is the only team giving up over 30 points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. Every quarterback has achieved at least 20 points against them and five over 30 fantasy points.
Additionally, they are one of four teams giving up over 2000 passing yards on the season and are also giving up the most touchdowns to quarterbacks. A seismic, 19 total, with second place giving up 16. Not only is Teddy a safe play, but he’s also a sure thing this week against Washington!
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BUF) SIT
If you take out the one game he left early due to injury, Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 26.8 fantasy points per game in his three full games. This is good enough for the QB1! Who would have thought?
The Miami Dolphins offense has not been great. However, for fantasy, Tua has now given us back-to-back top 12 weeks since returning from injury. This includes being the QB1 last week. Tua is under siege from fans, analysts, and his own offensive line as Deshaun Watson rumors heat up. His O-line has allowed the most pressures in the NFL at 110 and most hurries at 89.
Tua Tagovailoa since returning from injury:
🐬 89.0 PFF Grade (4th)
🐬 620 passing yards (3rd)
🐬 74.7% completion percentage (3rd) pic.twitter.com/vrL9bWIX1y— PFF (@PFF) October 27, 2021
With that said, as much as I like Tua, I’m not going to help Tua’s case this week. He is facing the best team against quarterbacks, the Buffalo Bills. Not only do they have an absurd 5:10 TD: INT ratio, but they also haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer this year.
This includes five of six putting up less than 250 yards.
Uh-oh. Duck and cover Tua fans.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 8: Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell (vs. DET) START
Miles Sanders is due to miss at least this week and likely next. Kenneth Gainwell has done a noble job as the second back and should be thrust into the lead back role. Gainwells first test? The lowly Detroit Lions!
Sure, the Lions have heart and come close to winning a couple of games. One thing that is almost as undeniable as their heart, is their ineptitude against the run. They are 5th worst in points per game allowed to fantasy running backs. in seven weeks, five backs have managed 100 yards from scrimmage, and four ball carriers have put forward 20 point or better performances. Now, Gainwell has, to Sanders’ manager’s disdain, managed three top 24 finishes including last week as RB14 in relief of Sanders. Gainwell played 51% of snaps in week seven and delivered a 5/20 rushing line and 4/41/1 receiving line.
Not super sexy, but in a volatile running back landscape, it’s more than serviceable.
Detroit has already allowed four running backs to match or better that receiving line. This should create a safe top 24 floor for the former Memphis Tiger. Add on an uptick in carries and hopefully some scoring by the Eagles that includes Gainwell and bam!
We are turning this recipe into a beautifully cooked top 12 potential!
Zach Moss (vs. MIA) START
Zach Moss has been a lovely flex play for managers prior to the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago where he dropped 5.9. He had scored 12 or more fantasy points in four straight and found the end zone in three of four. While he isn’t a fantasy team altering RB1, he’s been building a case to be a back-end RB2. You may have to chase matchups and touchdowns with him, but are fantasy managers in a position to be that picky?
Considering that, the Titans were a top 10 team against fantasy running backs so there was the potential for a dud. This week it’s back up against the team he started his season against. Moss faced the Dolphins in Week 2 and put up one of his best early fantasy performances yet as the RB11 with 17.4 points.
On average, Miami is giving up 26.8 points per game to running backs. Outside of the Atlanta Falcons last week, the Dolphins had allowed a running back to put up 12 or more points in six straight weeks. Against the Dolphins in week two, Moss saw his smallest snap share at 28%. Since that week he hasn’t dipped below 55% snap share.
The touchdowns should be there.
The workload should be there.
Load up Zach Moss in what should be a blowout Bills win against the Dolphins. I mean they did beat them 35-0 just a couple of weeks ago.
Leonard Fournette (vs. NO) SIT
This was a tough choice because there are a lot of great running backs facing strong rushing defenses in Week 8. As much as I’d love to call a Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara bust game, I can’t even convince myself. So I landed on Lenny.
As it stands now, Leonard Fournette is the RB9 on the season.
He has managed to rip the job from Ronald Jones’s clutches and made Giovani Bernard a near non-factor. Lenny has played 295 total snaps this season while neither Jones nor Bernard have managed to reach 100. In five of seven games, he’s finished as a Top 20 RB including back-to-back RB1 finishes. It’s also been four straight weeks eclipsing 15 fantasy points.
Needless to say, Fournette is a hot hand on a cold day. You don’t want to let go, you feel you have to play him.
However, Fournette is playing the toughest team against fantasy running backs he’s had to face yet. The New Orleans Saints rank 4th best in fantasy points allowed per game to the running back position at 18.3. Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Antonio Gibson are the only RBs to manage 20 points or more on them. Other than those three, no running backs have even managed six fantasy points when facing them.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 8: Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman (vs. TEN) START
The Titans shocked Patrick Mahomes and Company last week in what managers and analysts were calling a slam dunk game for guys like Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. We know how this story ended. Complete and utter fantasy disappointment!
Besides last week, Tennessee has been torched by wideouts. Seven wide receivers have eclipsed 20 points against them. Matter of factly, 17 wide receivers have managed 10 or more. If you are doing the math, yes it is over two wide receivers per week managing double-digit fantasy output. I say take the Kansas City Chiefs’ failure as the outlier week, not the Titans secondary turning things around.
Michael Pittman put up 13.3 points in week three against Tennessee earlier this year, with a 6/68 stat line. Pittman is the clear-cut WR1 in this offense and there is fantasy gold littered throughout his stats. Whether it be seven targets in 4 of 7 games, two 100 yard games, three 20 point fantasy games, or his five receptions for 72 yards per game average gives owners a safe floor.
This juicy matchup is what has him trending toward another 20+ point outburst!
Deebo Samuel (vs. CHI) START
Jimmy Goropolo and Deebo Samuel are one of the closest matches made in heaven for fantasy football there could be. Jimmy loves Deebo so much, Bradon Aiyuk has become non-existent and Goropolo would prefer to force the ball to Deebo at all costs.
Entering Week 8, Samuel is the WR5 on the season with three top 12 finishes. He has only scored less than 15 points once in five games and his workload even with rookie Trey Lance in has remained obscenely high with no game seeing less than eight targets. Deebo is a smash play until he or the offense tells you otherwise!
Now for the juicy data. The Chicago Bears are the fifth-worst against fantasy wide receivers in per-game points allowed. Last week they allowed a 30 point and 20 point effort from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and have also allowed 12 total touchdowns to pass catchers and 13 receivers to score over 12 fantasy points.
This feels like a major boom game for Deebo. Similar to Week 1 and Week 4 with 30 fantasy points. I’m looking for a seven or eight reception game with 150 yards and a touchdown or two.
Add Deebo Samuel to the 49ers’ injury list. He won’t practice today due to a calf issue, but Shanahan is “optimistic he’ll be all right” for Sunday at Chicago
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) October 27, 2021
Tee Higgins (vs. NYJ) SIT
The New York Jets are actually pretty good against wide receivers.
How?
Because teams are able to run the ball with ease, kill the game clock and put up points. Wide receivers against the Jets are seeing about 18 targets and 12 receptions. You pair that with targeting multiple receivers and the amount of possible fantasy output goes down. The Jets also haven’t allowed a wide receiver to score over 20 fantasy points.
This feels like a Ja’Marr Chase game to me. He’s doing a lot more with his targets (No. 6 in fantasy points per route and No. 3 per target), and with the Jets’ tendency to really give fantasy relevance to only one wide receiver a week, Higgins is the odd man out for me.
Roll out, Chase. Roll out, Joe Mixon. Maybe even stream C.J. Uzomah.
The matchup favors those working in the middle of the field plus one wide receiver and you won’t see me going against Chase at this point.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 8: Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (vs. LAC) START
Rewind to preseason, startup drafts, and season-long drafts, Jonnu Smith was being drafted ahead of Hunter Henry. Return to the present. Hunter Henry is the TE10 and Jonnu Smith is the TE21. Smith has yet to produce a top 12 week so far.
Henry has two.
Neither are the sexiest of options because the New England Patriots breed insecurity and distrust among fantasy managers.
This week feels good for Henry to continue rolling! He has now found the end zone in four straight games and has produced 10 or more fantasy points in those four games. He’s finding the end zone despite seeing less red zone looks than Jonnu and tied for 4th on the team in red-zone touches with Rhamondre Stevenson! Henry has just been more effective ranking 8th among tight ends in fantasy points per target.
The Los Angles Chargers are one of the stingiest defenses against wide receivers but are terrible in the short game and middle of the field against running backs and tight ends. Henry has a great chance to deliver as guys like Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne may face a tough challenge downfield. Give me Henry for a 5th straight game with a tuddy and then some against an easily mismatched linebacking group.
Ricky Seals-Jones (vs. DEN) SIT
Ricky Seals-Jones has been a revelation stepping in for Logan Thomas playing all but six snaps in the last four weeks. He’s also been a top 15 tight end in three of those four games. He’s a TE8 overall in the last three weeks. Usually, I would let the good times roll, but you may want to pivot this week in a not-so-friendly matchup.
Diving in, the Denver Broncos are the fourth-best against tight ends in points allowed per game. Only two tight ends have managed over 10 points, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller. Otherwise, Austin Hooper managed 6.2 fantasy points, but no other tight end has gotten over five points in a game.
Will Seals-Jones be on the field and seeing opportunities?
Based on his snap shares, absolutely. Will he be able to produce enough to be fantasy relevant and land in the top 12 TEs? Based on the Broncos’ ability to shut down tight ends and receiving backs, I’m saying no.
Not getting enough Connor content? Check out this week’s episode of Gold Jackets Podcast with none other than C. Donald. You can follow him on Twitter at @Connorten!
