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Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7: Click, Click, Bait

Week 6 is in the books and the bye-pocalypse is upon us! Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7 and the wizard-like work of the waiver wire becomes even more important. As you navigate the bye weeks and injuries that have incapsulated the early part of the season, let’s look at some guys you should put in your lineup for week seven.

Before that a couple of thoughts on my 6-4 Week 6. Miles Gaskin Gaskin was a huge miss for fantasy and a cautionary tale of weighing too heavily on the opportunity. It’s Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Kansas City and nobody else. The volatility in finding that third receiving option can ruin fantasy lineups. Finally, the Jags wasted that first-round pick on Travis Etienne. James Robinson is a bonafide stud, who should have a nice role even when Etienne is back.

A quick look at the scoreboard:

  • STARTS: 14-22
  • SITS: 14-10

OVERALL: 28-32

 

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7: Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill (vs. Chiefs) START

Ryan Tannehill was drafted as a back-end QB1 by most. Through six weeks he’s actually been a back-end QB2. Ouch, this one hurts. Especially considering the Titans 1,2 punch of Julio Jones and AJ Brown have struggled to remain on the field together. Even more concerning. His touchdown percentage is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season, currently at 3.0% and he has only for multiple touchdowns in one game this year.

While Tannehill may be without Julio this week, the grass is looking very green against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position at 28.6. Four of their six games were 30+ fantasy points outings including three 300 yard passing games. Sure Derrick Henry will run a lot. However, this feels like confidence and touchdown-building game for Tannehill. The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 50% of games so far.

If the Tannehill of yesteryears is to make an appearance, this would be the week!

 

Daniel Jones (vs. CAR) SIT

There is no team offensively that has seen their skilled players decimated by injury quite like the New York Giants. Daniel Jones, Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepherd, and Kadarius Toney have all missed snaps due to injury. Now, it looks like they will be without Golladay, Toney, and Barkley again this week too.

Jones started out on fire and then injuries around him caught up to him. He fired out of a cannon early with three of the first four weeks eclipsing 25 points, two of which over 30. The last two weeks he’s put up 5.8 and 12.5.

The passing volume is there, the weapons to make things happen are not.

While the Carolina Panthers’ early shutdown defense was scary, they have begun to taper off and really be average. However, an average to above-average defense should be enough to help Danny Dimes drop a third straight dud. Although the Panthers have given up three straight 20+ fantasy point outings by quarterbacks, I like Jones and his situation more to the quarterbacks the Panthers faced early in the season: Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Davis Mills. They are not Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins.

Keep your eyes on the injury reports, if Barkley is a go Jones might sneak into the bottom of QB1s.

I would still rather pivot elsewhere for this week.

 

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7: Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (vs. PHI) START

Josh Jacobs is silently building a head of steam after missing two games with injury. Since returning in Week 4, he’s been the RB21 and put up ten plus points in all three games. Given the byes and injuries at the position, paired with a wonderful matchup, Jacobs has great upside against the Eagles this week. Jacobs has seen 12 rush attempts in all three games post-injury plus five targets in two of three (thanks Drake for stealing the thunder last week). He’s seen ten total RedZone touches in those three weeks and turned that into two touchdowns.

Jacobs is getting a very safe workload and despite the career-low yards per attempt, he’s keeping managers afloat in these rough fantasy oceans as a low-end RB2.

The Eagles have been completely run over, backed over, and then run over again by running backs this season. Teams are seeing it too, rushing the ball 25 times per game against them. It’s back-to-back weeks where a rusher saw 20 attempts now, and now four straight weeks where a rusher has achieved 18 plus points and had 80 yards or more on the ground. You know when you are driving on the highway and nobody is around you, just yourself and the open road, maybe a little bump here and there?

That’s exactly how I picture running backs feeling against the Eagles. 

 

Chuba Hubbard (vs. NYG) START

While Christian McCaffrey managers continue to suffer in silence, Chuba Hubbard owners are reaping all the benefits. He now owns back-to-back games of 13 plus points and he’s a smash start this week and next based on the matchups. He’s really turned it on the last two weeks seeing 65% of snaps in both games and getting 15 or more carries.

He’s got real RB1 upside the next two weeks.

The Giants are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. They have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards courtesy of five backs rushing for 75+ yards against them. In the last two weeks alone Zeke, Pollard, and Henderson accomplished this feat. Put Chuba down for a 75-yard minimum floor and hopefully a couple of catches and a touchdown will drive him into the top 12 RBs for the week.

 

Khalil Herbert (vs. TB) SIT

I get it, it is the bye-pocalypse. Justin Herbert managers were both taking advantage of an injury and preparing for this week of high-value byes. Herbert has absolutely delivered in the last two weeks with 18 rush attempts, over 75 yards on the ground, and five total RedZone touches.

How can you not play the RB11 from  Week 6?

Don’t look now, but the run-stuffing Tampa Bay Bucs are coming!

Teams have rushed on the Buccaneers the least in the NFL by 21 attempts on second place for a reason. For fantasy, they force managers into an absolute must-avoid situation with their running backs. The only running back of relevance this year. Myles Gaskin. He delivered 29.4 of his 31.9 points through the air. Otherwise, no running back has scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Bucs run defense. If Dame Williams is back he’s more likely going to see the passing work out of the backfield.

This is a game where Justin Fields can work on his frustrating aerial game. The Bucs are abysmal against wide receivers and tight ends.

Oh yeah, I did when I told you to sit Herbert.

 

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7: Wide Receiver

 

Deebo Samuel (vs. IND) START

The San Francisco 49ers are back from there bye and whether it’s Jimmy G or Trey Lance there is one sure thing. Deebo Samuel is the favorite target in this offense. Samuel has seen eight plus targets in all five weeks. He has five or more receptions in four of five. And he gives you a safe floor to stand on and a beautiful ceiling to potentially hit, eclipsing ten fantasy points in all five games. This includes 16 plus in four of five. The last two games have been against secondaries that are 20th or worse against wide receivers and he dropped 16.1 and 35.7.

The Colts are giving up the ninth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They’re giving up the second-most touchdowns to the position as well. All six weeks of this season have seen a wide receiver post 15 or more points against them. 

There is room for both Aiyuk and Deebo in this game especially given the byes and injuries teams are suffering through. Give me the wide receiver who ranks 2nd in target share and fourth in target rate at the position.

Averaging ten targets per game, especially having two different QBs give you looks, is astronomical and should not be taken lightly.

 

Darnell Mooney (vs. TB) START

Did someone say that Justin Fields could work on his aerial attack this week? Oh yeah, I did when I told you to sit Herbert. If Fields can’t get things going through the air against the Bucs, then write off 2021 and try again next season with Fields. The Buccaneers secondary is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The last two weeks may look better, but Miami and Philadelphia have struggled in delivering at the wide receiver position.

Oh, maybe like Chicago?

Oh yeah, I did when I told you to sit Herbert.

Keep those eyes on the prize. Forget I even mentioned the Bears’ struggles in the passing game. Mooney is currently out snapping Allen Robinson, if only by 12 total snaps. He has also, since week two when Fields started, managed four games with five-plus targets. He has also had five receptions in three of five games behind the arm of Fields. That’s led to three games over 12 fantasy points. Mooney should be rolled out with confidence this week even if you are still skeptical of Fields.

 

Devonta Smith (vs. LV) SIT

Devonta Smith has been the clear-cut leader in the passing work clubhouse in Philadelphia. Although the offense hasn’t been great, don’t let that cloud the reality. Smith has put up three respectable games over 14 points and dropped three crushing blows to fantasy managers with less than six points. Despite this, he’s played over 45 snaps every game and prior to last week saw six or more targets in all five games. Some may not have a choice but to play Smith and test his volatility.

Here is my warning to you.

The Las Vegas Raiders are allowing the third-lowest average points to the wide receiver position. Only one receiver has managed over 20 points against them. The leading receiver each week has also managed to deliver 15 points or better in four of six weeks. With such an inefficient passing game coming off the arm of Hurts and the Raiders decent play against receivers I’m looking elsewhere this week. The Raiders are bottom 12 against running backs and tight ends.

I’m banking on Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, and Kenneth Gainwell to have great games as they may be in store for a major boom performance.

 

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 7: Tight End

 

Zach Ertz (vs. HOU) START

You are probably reading that name and saying:

“But Connor it’s his first game as a Cardinal. But Connor, he won’t be fully up to speed with the playbook.”

Here is my support for Zach Ertz:

The Houston Texans are really bad. And if you didn’t think bad could get worse, they are the worst team against fantasy tight ends. They are giving up almost 20 points per game to the position. So I’d argue all Ertz has to do is get himself open. He can easily squeeze into the top 12 tight ends and I think this matchup can land him top six even.

The Arizona Cardinals were starting to get Maxx Williams more involved in the offense prior to his season ending ankle injury. They clearly felt that role needed to be replaced and they would use it to invest in a deal for Ertz. Williams was seeing over 40 snaps per game plus five targets or more in two of his four fully healthy games. Ertz is better then Williams. He will see the snaps and should consistently see the targets.

Against this horrendous Texans team, there is a good chance for Ertz’s best game in a while.

 

OJ Howard/Rob Gronkowski (vs. CHI) SIT

I put both names because if Rob Gronkowski is back, managers will want to roll him out. If he doesn’t play, Howard is coming off an inflated game against one of the worst linebacking corps in the league. Howard essentially put up his first five games of stats in one game against the Eagles.

While Gronk, who’s been out dealing with a rib injury, had three straight games of five-plus targets, two games with two touchdowns, and 19+ fantasy points in two games. His two big games were so big, he’s the TE11 still despite three games missed.

Managers are desperate to get the chance to roll him back out.

The Chicago Bears are the sixth-best team against fantasy tight ends. Beyond Tyler Higbee’s 11.8 point Week 1 performance, no tight end has managed more than ten points. This includes facing T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller, holding them both to 8.5 or less.

Only one touchdown went to a tight end and it came in week three.

Additionally, no tight end has managed over 50 yards since Higbee in Week 1. If Gronk is back I’m fading due to time missed and the matchup. While Howard’s week last week should not be disillusioned as reality and Howard’s breakout or anything too dramatic.

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