We made it and we are back with our Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 14. For some, it is the first week of the playoffs. For most, it’s the final and deciding week of the fantasy season, and what a season it has been. To my readers who have followed all season and to those who may be brand new this week. Thank you and I appreciate you all!
With that said, what did we learn from Week 13?
For starters, don’t mess with mother nature. She is a cruel one. Just ask the Buffalo Bills and New England. Additionally, and sadly Philidelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t start. If you however follow my matchup formula to start Gardner Minshew, you are likely to still be quite happy.
Unless of course, you roster Devonta Smith.
The last question I have is this: Did Rob Gronkowski visit Tom Brady’s fountain of youth and manage to become even more youthful with that time off? The connection appears to be going nowhere, so we obviously know the answer.
Scoreboard check, please.
- Starts: 31-46
- Sits: 31-21
Enough of that boxscore watching though. Let’s jump headfirst into Week 14.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 14: Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson (vs. NO) START
Before we begin, I will say that this is a streamer start with some major upside for more in a juicy matchup against the lowly New Orleans Saints. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Yes, the Saints held Dallas Cowboys signal-caller, Dak Prescott to 15 points, but this seems more the outlier. Prior to last week, the New Orleans had given up 30 points to fantasy quarterbacks in four of five games. It was a fairly strong gauntlet of fantasy QBs too, but ultimately if we take a trip a few weeks further back, we see over 20 points allowed to the likes of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones.
Wilson should safely put up 20 with some nice upside based on game script, and the opposing team has scored at least 20 points against NOLA in nine of 12 games including a string of six straight at this point in the season.
The rookie quarterback is coming off his best fantasy showing of the season, where he put up 25.3 points against the Eagles. He also found the end zone for the second game in a row on the ground and additionally delivered his third multi-touchdown game of the season through the air.
It’s probably risky without the New York Jets WR1 in Corey Davis, but yards and points are something the Saints are giving lots of.
Joe Burrow (vs. SF) SIT
There are three things that come into play with Cinncinatti Bengals leader, Joe Burrow.
- The dislocated pinky.
- His inconsistent fantasy play.
- An improving San Francisco 49ers defense.
Burrow will likely remain in some discomfort, as his pinky will remain on the mend this week, but the fact remains that he has six of 12 weeks as a Top 12 quarterback — so to me, it sounds appealing enough? The former LSU Tiger is the QB12 on the year, BUT he also has four games as the QB20 or worse.
Maybe this recipe isn’t looking so great.
The 49ers’ defense has been 7th worst against the run over the last five weeks, giving up just shy of 28 points. To me, this could be a Joe Mixon game, and furthermore, they also have ranked 4th worst against wide receivers as well. So how are they gainst the quarterback?
They rank 9th best in the last five weeks.
There is a lot working against Burrow in this matchup, so I’d be avoiding him this week.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 14: Running Back
Leonard Fournette (vs. BUF) START
At this point, I almost feel it unfair to put Lenorad Fournette in here because if you aren’t starting him weekly you better have zero injuries to your running backs and have Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, and Austin Ekeler starting!
The thing that may scare people here is the matchup against the Buffalo Bills. What you need to keep in mind is, they were exposed last week as well as in prior weeks in terms of the passing game. The loss of Tre’Davious White will also create more of a strain on the safeties to focus on shutting down the pass.
Fournette is the RB4 on the season and has enjoyed four straight weeks as a Top 20 running back. He’s managed six catches in those four games and at least 10 rush attempts. The workload and the production are there.
Now, on to the matchup.
Buffalo got bamboozled by the Patriots run game on Monday night and gashed two weeks earlier by Jonathan Taylor. Their run defense has been exposed the most over the last five weeks, with a margin of 18 rush attempts over 2nd place and they have also given up the 2nd most yards and touchdowns on the ground.
Ameer Abdullah (vs. ATL) START
Since Week 9, when Christian McCaffrey came back for his short stint prior to re-injury, Ameer Abdullah has not only out-touched but also out-snapped the perceived RB2 for the Carolina Panthers, Chuba Hubbard. This perception comes from Hubbard leading the charge in CMC’s first extended absence, but to me, it feels there may be trending in a different direction this time.
Following McCaffrey going down again in Week 12 against the Miami Dolphins, Abdullah handled more snaps than Hubbard and prior to that out-snapped him in all three games except one with CMC. Abdullah is also getting the all-important, “per reception” work that we love, running 21 routes on 27 snaps last week. He also saw four targets or more in four of the last five games.
If you spent the FAAB on him, then there is no better time than the present to leverage it. This week’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is the final game against a bottom 16 team against fantasy running backs for Carolina this season.
Even Abdullah had nine points the last time Carolina played their division rival Falcons, and he was playing second fiddle to Chuba’s 25 touches at that time. Atlanta has allowed 14 points or greater now in nine of their last 10 games against a team’s lead running back.
The Panthers wide receivers and quarterback should continue to struggle, so leaning on the run game and check-downs are leaving Ameer open to both a nice workload in a very juicy matchup.
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. WFT) SIT
I’m returning to the well on this one. Last week, on the Gold Jacket Podcast, I said sit Ezekiel Elliott as well as Tony Pollard. Pollard was salvaged by a huge touchdown run late, but Zeke did not do great. This week, the Dallas Cowboys face the Washington Football Team in a matchup where Zeke can not be trusted.
The Football Team has been run on the least over the last five weeks with 15 rush attempts more than second place. There hasn’t been a team with over 20 rush attempts since Week 6 and Josh Jacobs had a decent game thanks to Kenyan Drake’s injury in Week 13 that saw him net nine receptions.
That’s the key — Washington has struggled against their opposition’s pass-catching backs, which makes you wonder how much Zeke really can do in this matchup.
With that in mind, Pollard could be a start as they have allowed an eight target or higher running back in three of the last four matchups. Feeding Zeke and letting him eat, doesn’t seem like the way to find success against this Washington defense. Add in Zeke remains banged up, and I’m just not trusting this.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 14: Wide Receiver
Darnell Mooney (vs. GB) START
The last time Darnell Mooney played the Green Bay Packers he put up one of his five, 15 point performances of the 2021 season with a stat line of 5/45/1 and was the WR21. That game seemingly unlocked Mooney, as he has produced 15 or more points in three games since and has only seen less than eight targets in two of his last six games. At this point, he is the WR1 in Chicago.
The word is that rookie, Justin Fields will be back. Nevertheless, however, Mooney will get the targets and have every opportunity to expose the 8th worst team against fantasy wide receivers in the last five weeks, as Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf are the only two leading receivers to finish with less than 10 points against them.
Jaire Alexander could be back, but I’m not convinced that threatens the upside Darnell has had week in and week out due to pure opportunity.
Jarvis Landry (vs. BAL) START
The Cleveland Browns got a chance to rest and heal with the bye last week and hopefully, they did just that. Especially quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
Before their bye week, Jarvis Landry dropped a WR17 showing against this same Baltimore Ravens defense who is now down their best cornerback in Marlon Humphrey. It was Landry’s first 100 yard game of the season and second straight game seeing eight or more targets. Things are setting up nicely for the remaining weeks of your fantasy season with Landry.
A fun fact about Baltimore’s opposing wide receivers: Over the last three weeks, four receivers have seen at least eight targets and they all finished with 100 yards and 15 or more fantasy points.
Truthfully, things weren’t looking that bad for the Ravens five weeks ago despite their losses in the secondary. Now, the situation has turned dire and fantasy managers should take note if their wide receiver is facing them.
Russell Gage (vs. CAR) SIT
Well hello, there Mr. Russell Gage! We only waited 11 weeks for this. It has now been back-to-back top 24 showings for Gage, who’s also seen seven or more targets in three straight outings. Sadly, however, all good things must, at least for one week, come to an end.
Gage faces the Panthers this week. Carolina ranks 8th best against fantasy wide receivers over the last five weeks, despite Jaylen Waddle and Terry McLaurin having back-to-back big games against the Panthers’ secondary.
But Gage is neither of those two.
Cordarrelle Patterson will likely continue to be the engine that makes this offense pur, with some Gage and Kyle Pitts sprinkled in, and based on the recent week’s performances from Carolina against wide receivers there is only room for one weapon to have a fantasy-relevant experience.
Fantasy Football Start and Sits for Week 14: Tight End
Evan Engram (vs. LAC) START
Boy, have the New York Giants ever been fun this year. Between injuries and inconsistent play, I can honestly say I’m shocked with the wins they were able to mount. Likely heading towards the third-string QB, Jake Fromm, it’s hard to have faith in much, but there are always those surprise tight ends week in and week out. Evan Engram feels like that guy this week.
Engram’s average depth of target is down two-plus yards from last season, as he’s become one of the team’s favorite short-yardage options. He has seen five or more targets in seven of 10 games this season, and as ugly as it seems, 10-12 points can land you right smack in the TE6 range. Engram has also managed 10 or more points in four of his last six games.
The Los Angles Chargers have remained a top-10 worst team against fantasy tight ends all season. They are giving up the 2nd most touchdowns to tight ends and most over the last five weeks. The last two weeks have been easy since Cincinnati doesn’t use the tight end much and Denver’s offense, outside of their run game, has been abysmal.
Sure the Giants’ offense hasn’t been much better, but the constant is their target leader in Engram. It’s rare to hear that, but opportunity and volume will be there, and a nearly wide open short and middle-of-the-field may be just enough to give him some nice upside!
Darren Waller (vs. KC) SIT
There seems to be a good chance the Las Vegas Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller plays this week and managers are probably foaming at the mouth to get the opportunity to do so. However, I’m not sold he will be 100% and the matchup isn’t great.
Waller has largely been kind of underwhelming this season. He’s had some nice games and his 12.9 points per game is still good for 5th among tight ends. But that number is his lowest over the last three years, including being at nearly five points less than last season. Basically, it feels like an average season at best.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6th against tight ends over the last five weeks, and they haven’t allowed a touchdown in that span of four games. Furthermore, in the last six games, the best tight end performance has been an 11.3. You might get a TE1 showing in Week 14, but the odds certainly are not great. Especially with the clear expectations, Waller brings.
When faced the Chiefs three weeks ago, he put up a 4/24 line on seven targets. That’s just 6.4 fantasy points. Taper expectations for his return this week.
