We are almost there. After an offseason of strenuous research, debunking of beat reporter news, rumors, and countless rankings. The fantasy playoffs will be starting for all of us over the next couple of weeks. We’re back however with our Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 13 Edition, because frankly — there is still work to be done.
Week 12 was another weird week in fantasyland.
Playoff Lenny was reincarnated, well x4. Like the four touchdowns he had. George Kittle did miss like I called in my sit, but many likely didn’t listen. The running back landscape is becoming an absolute wasteland of really strong performers in the top 12 and then majorly lackluster performances in the RB2/3 range. I also totally missed how the Chicago Bears gameplay would go on Thanksgiving as Darnell Mooney showed us, he was going to eat.
The scoreboard please:
- Starts: 29-43
- Sits: 29-19
Week 13, here we come!
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 13: Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (vs. NYJ) START
Initial comments from Coach Nick Sirianni seem to be that Jalen Hurts will be a go this weekend despite a sore ankle. Sure, Gardner Minshew is preparing to play just in case, but there could be a risk that Hurts leaves during the game as well. But this matchup is way too good!
The New York Jets over the last five weeks are 3rd worst in per-game points allowed to quarterbacks. Prior to last week where Tyrod Taylor dropped 18.9, the Jets were on a streak of allowing a QB 20 or more points in six straight. Four of those QBs reached 25 points.
New York is also really bad against the run. So this could end up one of those where Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and runs in multiple touchdowns. Managers won’t complain about how it happens, but Hurts will be a top 12 QB this week.
Mac Jones (vs. BUF) SIT
The Mac Jones hype train is barreling along at full steam ahead! It’s almost uncontrollable with how much he has outperformed all other rookie quarterbacks.
Sadly, this hype hasn’t translated to any fantasy team-altering play. Jones is the QB17 on the year and has just three top 12 showings. Furthermore, he has surpassed 20 points on just four occasions in 2021.
This week he meets the QB suppressing Buffalo Bills who rank No. 1 against opposing signal-callers in points allowed per game. They are also allowing the lowest yards to quarterbacks through the air and have double the interceptions to touchdowns allowed. Since Pat Mahomes in Week 5, only two QBs have managed 15 points or more and none have achieved 20 or more in those six games.
You can continue to enjoy Jones, but for this week I’d enjoy it from a distance. The only thing that could play to his favor is how big of an impact no Tre’Davious White will have on the Buffalo secondary.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 13: Running Back
Elijah Mitchell (vs. SEA) START
It’s turning out Elijah Mitchell is paying dividends for those who spilled their FAAB. Minus the games missed due to injury, he has heeded little work to Jeff Wilson Jr, Trey Sermon, or JaMycal Hasty. In fact, he saw his first game achieving a 70% snap count a few days ago. It looks like he may be running away with the job.
Oh yeah and he’s heading into a juicy matchup against a suffering Seattle Seahawks defense. Only two teams are allowing 30 points or more per game to the running back position, the Jets and Seahawks. They have allowed three straight 20+ point running backs performances and five of their last six to surpass that.
Mitchell missed the first matchup against the Hawks, but Sermon put up 89 yards on 19 carries alone. Sermon is the only team-specific RB1 to not surpass 12 points against Seattle this season. In eight games thus far in 2021, Elijah has surpassed that same 12 point mark five times on his own.
Load up the Elijah Missile!
Jamaal Williams (vs. MIN) START
It’s tough to imagine D’Andre Swift playing this week against the Minnesota Vikings, which makes Jamaal Williams a very intriguing play. Last week after Swift went down, Williams delivered a 15/65 rushing line and 5/18 receiving line. Good enough to land him in the top 24.
The Vikings rank in the bottom 12 against fantasy running backs, and in the last five weeks, they are allowing 25.8 fantasy points per game. Only one team’s lead running back has not achieved 12 points against this defense including only four through 11 games that have failed to reach 15 points.
The receiving work alone provides a safe floor too.
The Lions target the running back the second most of any team, as Swift was seeing the second most targets behind tight end TJ Hockenson and, of his full games, only one under five targets. Williams isn’t going to wow anybody, but given the running back landscape, there is no reason to get fancy. He will see check-downs and get the bulk of carries, thus he should safely land in the top 24, with top 12 upside in this matchup.
Josh Jacobs (vs. WSH) SIT
Josh Jacobs was drafted in the running back dead zone in 2021, with expectations to be an RB2. Despite Jacobs currently being RB24 with seven top 24 finishes to his name, there seems to be a feeling of disappointment.
Well, get ready for more of that!
The Washington Football Team, despite losing star defensive end Chase Young, has remained solid against running backs. In the last five weeks, they are giving up just over 21 points per game and have allowed just three touchdowns in the last four games, two of which went to Melvin Gordon in a single outing.
Jacobs efficiency has been lackluster, ranking 46th in yards-per-touch and 49th in yards-per-carry, which discounts ten-yard or greater runs. His fantasy points per opportunity ranks just 30th among qualified halfbacks too.
While the opportunity is there, the production is very running back dead zone-esque.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 13: Wide Receiver
Devonta Smith (vs. NYJ) START
Give me that Eagles stack! I have Hurts as the must-start quarterback, and although he may not get 300 yards passing weekly, he has a fairly clear favorite target. After the failed attempt to use Jalen Reagor last week, Hurts should be looking back to his best friend and former Alabama teammate, rookie Devonta Smith.
Smith has been targeted six times or more in nine of 12 games this season, and also ranks among the top 10 in air yards and average target depth. The opportunity has been great, truly. Sadly though, the end result hasn’t always been that of a great connection between Smith and Hurts.
Lucky for Smith, a date with the Jets secondary is exactly what the doctor ordered, as the Jets are allowing the second-most points per game to the wideout position over the last five weeks. While most teams tend to abuse New York with the run, there seems to be receiver production fairly regularly each week too. Over the last seven games, the opposing team’s top wide receiver managed 15 or more points on five occasions.
Brandin Cooks (vs. IND) START
Houston Texans’ veteran wideout, Brandin Cooks, has silently had a decent season for a team ranking among the bottom three in the NFL. He is currently the WR22 and has managed seven top 24 performances in 2021.
Their Week 13 opposition, the Indianapolis Colts, has allowed the most touchdowns on the season to wide receivers, and the second-most in the last five weeks. Also, in those five weeks, they rank ninth-worst against the position in per game average.
Besides last week’s stinker by the Tampa Bay Bucs’ receiving corps and Tom Brady, a team’s top WR scored 13 points or better every week. Furthermore, there have only been three occasions a team’s top wideout didn’t eclipse 17 points.
Stefon Diggs (vs. NE) SIT
This is going to be a tough one to sell, just like last week when I put George Kittle down as my tight end to sit.
If you listened, you are welcome.
What have we learned about the New England Patriots? They thrive on taking away a team’s No. 1 target. Who is the Bills’ No. 1 target?
None other than Stefon Diggs.
Bill Belichick and the Patriots are also the only team in the NFL allowing less than 20 points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, and on the season, they rank fourth-best against fantasy ball catchers and are one of four teams allowing less than 30 points per game.
Buffalo and New England are likely due for a war of “let the best defense standing win,” this Sunday. Apparently so does Vegas, with the second-lowest over/under at 43.5 of this week’s slate of games.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 13: Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (vs. ATL) START
Big Rob Gronkowski came back from injury and has picked up where he left off in the opening of weeks of the season. That is minus the touchdowns. He has now managed 13 points or better in four of five full games played, and has been targeted eight times or greater in four of five. This week he gets the Atlanta Falcons who he hung 19.9 points on in week two.
The Falcons are not bad against the tight end position, however, as only three tight ends have managed more than 10 points against them. It just so happens the second-best tight end game against them was from Gronk himself!
You can’t just deny such a recent past performance, and the volume, opportunity, and efficiency of a healthy Gronk has been an undeniable strength when paired with Brady.
TJ Hockenson (vs. MIN) SIT
We return to the team I visited last week when telling you to sit George Kittle. Hockenson is another one of those players that you will have a hard time sitting.
I get it.
So again, hear me out.
The Vikings just held Kittle to 2.3 points and since week four have only allowed one tight end over 10 points. In fact, in Week 5, Hockenson faced the Vikings and finished 2/22 and 4.2 points. Hock is the TE4 and is seeing tons of opportunity. Unfortunately, as with the tight end position in general, the results have been mixed for him. I’m steering clear of Hockenson against the Vikings in this matchup.
