Sadly my fantasy football starts and sits post didn’t make it up last week, but I had it typed up and I went 5-5. My biggest miss would have been having Austin Ekeler as a sit against the Steelers. Boy, did he go off or what?
I did, however, nail my tight end sit and start. Adam Trautman was my start and he had a monster effort and was on his way to doing more damage! I had Dan Arnold as my sit who, well, may have laid an egg. I hit on Rhamondre Stevenson and Leonard Fournette as my running back starts, but missed both wide receivers starts, Devonta Smith and Rashod Bateman.
But we are back and ready to take off for Week 12!
What’s the scoreboard look like? Let’s take a look:
- Starts: 27-39
- Sits: 27-17
Overall: 54-56
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Quarterbacks
Cam Newton (vs. MIA) START
Cam is back! Kind of. As a streamer mainly. I mean we need to be realistic. But he can certainly help the Carolina Panthers and fantasy rosters for the remainder of 2021 at a minimum.
After a QB18 return as basically a Taysom Hill-like weapon in his return. He delivered a QB4 performance against the Washington Football Team, the worst team against fantasy quarterbacks. It may not be pretty, but in fantasy, it isn’t always about looks.
This week he faces the 5th worst team against fantasy quarterbacks, the Miami Dolphins. Only one QB has failed to achieve 15 points against the Dolphins and that was Tyrod Taylor. Otherwise, there are eight 20 point performances against them including a 30 and 40 point showing.
Newton should be able to work the passing and ground game and deliver fantasy owners another top 12 performance. You may even see another top 5 showing with how bad this defense has been in Southern, Florida.
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. CAR) SIT
To the other side of the ball, I go for my sit.
The Panthers’ defense has been strong against quarterbacks. They rank 3rd in points per game allowed at 18.8. Taylor Heinicke just dropped 25 on them, but before that, it was four straight weeks without a 20 point scoring quarterback against. And beyond a string of three games against Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins, they have kept opposing quarterbacks at bay.
I love Tua and want him to succeed, but the weapons are banged up. They lack a run game. The offensive line is bad. Tua is taking the fall for an overall unlucky and bad situation. Carolina’s front should smother him with pressure and make things tough to generate sufficient fantasy offense. In the last three games, he’s missed the top 12.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Running Backs
David Montgomery (vs. DET) START
As with every Thanksgiving game, the Detroit Lions always give us a barnburner. And this year against the Chicago Bears should be no different.
The Lions are exactly what we expected. And the Bears are severely underperforming, but it didn’t take a genius when Matt Nagy returned as the coach to see that they are exactly what most expected as well. Thank you NFL schedule makers.
David Montgomery squashed Khalil Herbert like I mentioned he would upon return. He is back to playing over 80% of snaps, getting the majority of touches on the ground and through the air. Plus we all know Nagy’s offense is like watching paint dry and he loves to establish a run game!
Well, this may be one of the few times I’m OK with that. The Lions rank 3rd worst against running backs in points per game allowed to running backs. They are giving up the third-most rushing yards and third-most touchdowns on the ground. Through the air not as bad, but based on those first three stats is there a reason for a team to work the dump-off game?
Miles Sanders (vs. NYG) START
I debated Miles Sanders or Saquon Barkley in this spot. Barkley and his generational talent are being dragged all through the mud saying he was a bad draft pick and doesn’t deserve an extension and so on and so forth. I’m sure he’d love to leave the New York Giants and show them what he can do in a real offense.
With that in mind plus the firing of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett happening Monday, I’m not sure how, but I trust the Giants even less than before right now.
Sanders should see the bulk of the workload with Jordan Howard out this week. He fumbled Sunday which helped him lose touches to Howard. Not this week! The Philadelphia Eagles will likely continue to stick with what is working which is their aggressive ground game. Meaning, Sanders should be the primary beneficiary of most of the touches. He saw 17 total opportunities last week on 35 snaps played, his second-most opportunities in eight games this season.
The Giants rank 8th worst against fantasy running backs. They have allowed a running back to put up at least 12 points in six of the last seven weeks. This paired with the Eagles’ willingness to run opponents into submission, should generate some nice fantasy opportunities and value for Miles Sanders.
Leonard Fournette (vs. IND) SIT
Leonard Fournette was a start of mine last week and sadly, the mighty must fall.
In the last five weeks, the Indianapolis Colts are 7th best against fantasy running backs. No running back has managed to score 20 points against them. And only four have managed 15 or more as the lead back, three of those came in the first seven weeks. Plus with sportsbooks having the over/under line at a week high 51.5, it sounds like there is anticipation building for an old-fashioned shootout.
Lenny has seen three straight weeks of less than 12 carries and less than 50 yards on the ground, after four weeks of seeing 12 or more. His back-to-back weeks of six-plus targets and turning that into 14 receptions is certainly promising in PPR. But three straight games without finding the end zone, and relying mainly on receiving work to keep him afloat is not great, but could be enough to give him a floor at this banged-up and volatile running back position.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry (vs. BAL) START
Jarvis Landry and the rest of the Cleveland Browns receiving weapons have been a nightmare this year. The combined wide receiving room has three top 24 showings. Ouch.
Lucky for Baker Mayfield and Landry, maybe even Donovan Peoples-Jones, the Baltimore Ravens are fifth-worst against wide receivers over the last five weeks. One of five teams giving up over 40 points per game to the position. Among teams like the New York Jets, Houston Texans, and the Dolphins. Oh boy.
Landry hasn’t stepped up to the plate exactly since OBJs grand departure. Sure his catch rate hasn’t been great, but his quarterback may just be worse. Landry is seeing the 62nd rank in catchable targets and his target quality ranks 103rd.
I’m counting on a nicer matchup to help Mayfield see the field and his receivers to get open! Landry has top 24 upside, with top 12 potential.
Elijah Moore (vs. HOU) START
By now you have heard about what rookie Elijah Moore has done over the past four weeks. It’s undeniable. Yet some people are allowing the return of Zach Wilson to sour their feelings on the hottest receiver in football over the last few weeks. Oh no! We will not do that!
Moore has been THE WR1 and WR3 in two of the last four weeks and has been just on the outside of the top 24 the other two times. Over the last four weeks, he is THE WR1 ahead of Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. In the Jets offense! Now they get their franchise QB back against the Houston Texans!
Sorry, but you can’t take that momentum and that matchup and not see top 12, maybe even top three WR upside this week.
The Texans are ninth-worst on the season, but second worst over the last five weeks against fantasy wide receivers. It’s been four straight weeks allowing the top wide receiver on a team to score 15 plus points. And five straight weeks where a team has had two receivers score over 10 against them. What better matchup for Wilson and Moore to build that connection!
Darnell Mooney (vs. DET) SIT
This one was tough to pick because Darnell Mooney has been good, but I think sportsbooks lines are telling you something. An over/under of 41.5, the lowest of the week, means this game is going to be ugly. And this game is likely going to be taking to war on the ground.
I have Montgomery as a start. D’Andre Swift is a clear start. These are two teams who love to establish the run in almost any game script because their aerial attacks have been horrendous!
Sorry, Mooney owners. Despite how bad Detroit is and Mooney’s back-to-back 20 point efforts. I think Montgomery is going to feast. And while Mooney will continue to see targets, it may just be a massive target line with an ugly end result line.
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Tight Ends
Evan Engram (vs. PHI) START
I’ve been losing sleep over making this start call, but the opportunity plus a key injury to the Eagles linebackers have left me with no choice.
Evan Engram is perhaps the most polarizing of tight ends in the last five years. He’s got the athletic profile working for him and a really strong rookie season. Otherwise, injuries and brutally inconsistent play have stymied him as a fantasy asset.
Engram is having a career-low per game PPR points average at 7.9. His target rate is a lowly 11.7% and his ADOT is terrifying at 4.3 air yards or 6.o% of team air yards. He did find the end zone two times in the last four games and rolled to three straight 10 point PPR games prior to last week. He’s shown some streaming potential.
The Eagles will be without their most athletic linebacker in Davion Taylor. Over the last five weeks, they are the only team to allow 20 plus points per game to the tight end position. This includes a streak of 6 straight games allowing 10 or more to a team’s lead tight end. In four of those six weeks, the top tight end managed over 15 points.
It’s a risk, but one that could pay very nice dividends if he hits. He should at least give you a 10 point floor, with near 20 point upside if he can find the end zone and make even just a couple of plays. It’s a lot to ask of a putrid offense, I know.
George Kittle (vs. MIN) SIT
I’m sure you saw the name and are likely scrolling by. You are thinking, Connor this is my top tight end, who I invested significant draft capital in and he’s finally healthy! Now you have the gall to tell me to sit him? Yes, I am.
The Minnesota Vikings rank third-best in the last five weeks against tight ends in per game average points allowed, 8.1. Some of the names this season who failed to reach 10 points against them, you may recognize a couple: TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, and Jared Cook. Sure, Josiah Degura managed 11 last week on a vomit-inducing, 2/37/1 stat line. But prior to that, it had been six straight games of tight ends failing to achieve 10 points.
Oh yeah. Deguras’ touchdown, was the first one given up to the tight end position by the Vikings this season. They are much worse against wide receivers, so I would be more apt to start Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk over George Kittle.
