Click, Click, Bait: Week 4 Starts and Sits
Nailed it!
By that I mean I definitely smashed the Emmanuel Sanders start in week three. Otherwise, things didn’t go so hot. No reason for excuses, not even your entire receiving corps being injured or getting injured. *cough* Daniel Jones. Let’s pick ourselves back up with our Week 4 Starts and Sits.
My record through the first three weeks:
Starts: 5-14, Sits: 7-5, Overall: 12-19
Quarterback:
Matt Ryan (vs. WFT) START
I get it, Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense have been bad. Really bad. The Washington Football Team has also been bad, like league worst bad against quarterbacks. Ryan’s current average points per game is 17.5. He has finished under 20 points per game in a season only once since 2010. With age, regression is expected, but this feels like a situation that can turn around.
Ryan’s current standing amongst fantasy Quarterbacks is overdramatized by a 9 point performance in week one. He has since produced 20+ points in back to back weeks. The Football Team has given up a 20 point, 30 point and 40 point game to quarterbacks in the first three weeks of the season. Everything is trending up for Ryan, including attempts, completion percentage and touchdowns. With a jolt of momentum after beating the New York Giants, this feels like a get right week for Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds.
Daniel Jones (vs. NO) SIT
Daniel Jones was on a high after back to back 25+ point performances landed him at the QB4 in PPR. He had the rushing upside, he was throwing the ball 30+ times a game, and some of his playmakers were getting busy. Sadly, skill player injuries and poor offensive line play could bring things to a screeching halt.
The Saints have forced six interceptions already in three weeks. The uncertain status of three of Jones’ wide receivers and the struggle to establish much of a ground game isn’t great. Jones is top five across most rushing categories for Quarterbacks, which is intriguing. However, he needs to continue throwing a lot and running for his life to see continued production for fantasy gamers. This makes him more susceptible to his signature mistake-prone brand of Quarterback play. Jones currently sits with the 7th most dangerous throws of any Quarterback. The Saints will make him pay for mistakes.
Running Back:
Trey Sermon (vs.SEA) START
The Seahawks are terrible against the run, and San Francisco fancies any opportunity to make its hay on the ground. The deployment of the 49ers running backs has already been frustrating. Now, with Sermon showing excruciating ineffectiveness with his Week 3 starting opportunity, how do we make sense of it all? Don’t give up on Sermon yet. The 49ers still run the ball just shy of 29 times a game. Even if Elijah Mitchell is back from a shoulder injury this week, this could be the game where two backs see top 24 upside.
The Seahawks have been chewed up and spit out on the ground this season. They’ve given up the most yards, receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Kyle Shanahan must be salivating! Seattle has allowed over 100 total yards to a running back in every game this season, including a monster game by Alexander Mattison in week 3. Sermon should see enough opportunity to have a safe floor and if Mitchell is out again, this could be big!
Nyheim Hines (vs. MIA) START
The Colts offensive line is banged up, and much like the sky is blue, Carson Wentz is also hobbled and doing Carson Wentz things. Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor have pretty much had a 60/40 split in this backfield including Hines outsnapping Taylor this past week against the Titans. I see this trend continuing as the opportunity should be abundant against a Miami defense that’s given up the second most fantasy points per game to the Running Back position.
So far, Hines is only seeing about 10 opportunities (targets and carries combined) per game. His Yards per touch is 4th best among running backs thus far and he also ranks 7th in receiving yards and 11th in receptions with 4 per game. That receiving work gives you a safe floor, and he’s always got big play upside as even with limited usage, he has two games with 75+ total yards, 5 receptions, and 12 or more PPR points. His only game of concern came against a tough LA Rams defense so I think you can play both Hines and Taylor with confidence this week!
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. CAR) SIT
Zeke and Tony Pollard absolutely abused the Eagles defense on Monday night. Fantasy Managers may find this a tough sit. People are still deciding if this Panthers defense is for real or not, but his matchup will be all the proof you need. Lockdown defense vs. high octane offense. While Carolina may not have been tested to the fullest yet, the early results have been promising. Just ask Alvin Kamara who put up a paltry 7 PPR points in week 2.
In 3 games so far this season, the Panthers defense hasn’t even allowed 100 rushing yard combined! The aforementioned 7 points from Alvin Kamara is still the season high for a Running back facing Carolina. The Jaycee Horn injury in the Panthers’ secondary is another reason we might see Dallas push the pace through the air. Overall, the choice to sit Zeke is more due to the matchup than it is his production or effectiveness, but I’ll remain on the side of caution for now.
Wide Receiver:
Jakobi Meyers (vs. TB) START
The story of the night will be Brady’s return to Foxboro. The real story is the opportunity for Mac Jones and the Patriots’ receivers. Jones has thrown the ball 30 plus times in every game so far, including 51 times against the Saints in week 3. Among wide receivers, Meyers ranks 4th in snap share, 3rd in routes run and 11th in targets. Quick math shows that lots of playing time plus high volume of pass attempts equals fantasy opportunity gold!
The Bucs have given up the most yards and touchdowns to wide receivers at this point. This is in large part due to their high-powered passing offense and a defense who’s strength is stopping the run. While Mac Jones and the Patriots offense isn’t sexy on paper, we can’t discount their ability to score for Fantasy Football. Especially in a negative game script. Just ask those who roster Kendrick Bourne and his 21.6 PPR points from week 3. Alongside Bourne, Meyers finished week 3 as the WR18 with 14 targets, 9 receptions and 94 yards. Firmly entrenched at the top of the target totem pole, I feel a similar week is on the horizon for Jakobi Meyers.
Jaylen Waddle (vs. IND) START
Jaylen Waddle is everything the Dolphins and fantasy managers had hoped for and he still has miles of room to grow. Currently the WR 25, Waddle’s targets have increased in each of his 3 games, culminating in a team high 13 targets against the Raiders in week 3. Waddle currently sits with the 5th most receptions of any WR, and he’s shown the ability to create on his own with 96 of his 167 yards coming after the catch thus far, good for 9th best in the league. While we’re not being picky about how he scores fantasy points, I think there’s still some meat on the bone as far as air yards are deep work for the Alabama product.
Indianapolis is a hot mess both offensively and defensively. In only 3 weeks, they’ve allowed 5 receivers to score 12 or more PPR points against them and they’re currently tied for the most touchdowns given up to the position with 7. Before his injury, Tua Tagovailoa was already looking Waddle’s way. In a single game sample, Jacoby Brissett appears to be looking his way even more. Start your Jaylen Waddles folks!
Marquise Brown (vs. DEN) SIT
Aside from his 3 back-breaking drops against the Detroit Lions, one of which coming in the endzone, Marquise Brown has been a pleasant surprise so far for the Baltimore Ravens. Hollywood sits second on the team behind Sammy Watkins in Wide Receiver snap share, and he’s averaging over 7 targets per game through 3 weeks. The targets and opportunity are there, as well as the touchdowns. So why sit Brown?
The Broncos seem to be resurrecting the no fly zone. At least a discount version of it. Sure, the competition hasn’t been great, but the Ravens aerial attack hasn’t been either. The Broncos have only allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers, and through 2 weeks, they’ve only allowed one player to eclipse 75 receiving yards. With Wideouts only catching 55% of their targets against this secondary and a spotty Ravens aerial attack, I’m out on Hollywood.
Tight End:
Noah Fant (vs. BAL) START
KJ Hamler joins Jerry Jeudy on the shelf after ending his season with a torn ACL. The Broncos pass catching depth chart has quickly become paper thin. The Ravens had a tough first two weeks facing Darren Waller and Travis Kelce, but they bounced back nicely in week 3 holding TJ Hockenson to only 3 PPR points on 2 targets. In Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver has an extremely talented Tight End tandem. As a team, Teddy Bridgewater’s Broncos have targeted the Tight end at the 4th highest rate so far this season. While the receiver room battles through the war of attrition, the Tight Ends, specifically Noah Fant, should remain heavily involved.
While some may fear the shut down of Hockenson last week, I think the opportunity for Fant is too rich. Among Tight Ends, Fant has the 7th highest snap share, 7th highest % of routes run, the 7th most targets overall, and the 2nd most targets inside the red zone. Not only is Fant being heavily utilised, he’s got the athleticism and after the catch ability to be a mismatch and turn that opportunity into productivity.
Tyler Higbee (vs. ARI) SIT
Currently the TE12, Higbee has sandwiched two top 12 performances with a 1.8 point dud against the Indianapolis Colts. While Higbee has been on the field for 93.5% of snaps this season, he has a 37th ranked hog rate (targets per snap) among tight ends. With the added involvement of Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson, it’s hard to see Higbee’s weekly targets finding any consistency.
Despite his spotty usage, Higbee will be the Cardinals first true test at the tight end position. While they’ve only faced the Titans, Vikings, and Jaguars, the Cardinals have yet to allow more than five PPR points to a tight end. None of their opponents even achieving 20 yards. Arizona has an athletic group in the middle of the field. Isaiah Simmons, Jordan Hicks and Zaven Collins at linebacker with Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson overtop at safety have combined for seven passes defensed and one interception. Higbee’s inconsistent volume paired with a strong defensive opponent up the middle makes him a sit for me.
