Fantasy Football is back! This means fantasy managers are closely watching injuries, matchups, and weather to try and get any advantage they can when setting their rosters weekly. Welcome to what I like to call: click, click, bait. It is a start and sit piece that features clicks to start and one that is a bait that you should sit.
For transparency, I am going to track my hits and misses throughout the season at True North Fantasy Football like a win/loss record. The starts and sits will be based on PPR scoring format. A hit will be decided based upon the following: top-12 quarterback, top-24 running back, top-24 wide receiver, and top-12 tight end. A miss will simply be any finish outside of that listed above. Most importantly, I will attempt to give starts and sits that are not necessarily your Tyreek Hills and CMCs of the world, who you should be starting anyways!
So let the fun begin!
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: QB
Jalen Hurts (vs. ATL) START
As an Eagles fan, this may seem like a homer start, but if you follow me you will know I’ve been skeptical of the rich investment in Hurts at his ADP. Christmas is coming early for Hurts, who gets to play against the worst team against the pass last season. The Falcons gave up 293 yards per game and had the 7th lowest sack percentage. Atlanta did very little to address the defensive side of the ball this offseason which likely leaves their offense in a lot of shootouts.
Hurts will march out an offense that includes first-round WR Devonta Smith, RB Miles Sanders, a two-headed TE weapon with Goedert and Ertz, plus, and most importantly, a healthy offensive line. Last year Hurts finished three of four games started as a QB1 and finished the last four weeks as the QB7 overall. His dual threat-ability, a juicy matchup, and week one team health on his side making him a smash start.
Justin Herbert (vs. WSH) SIT
Justin Herbert exploded on the scene in his 2020 rookie season thanks to a terrible medical blunder that ended Tyrod Taylor’s career with the Los Angeles Chargers. As expected, Herbert’s expectations with Anthony Lynn out as a play-caller are high. Fantasy football managers may find it hard to heed this warning.
The Football Team has a sneaky good defense and is a team that is not being talked about enough. Washington gave up the 6th lowest amount of points per week to quarterbacks last season at 20.3. They did have a meh quarterback schedule and gave some big games to big names. However, another season with this defense mainly intact spells improvement. Considering they only gave up 201 pass yards per game ranking 3rd among defenses, this could be a real trap game for Herbert managers.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: RB
Trey Sermon (vs. DET) START
Kyle Shanahan loves to run and use multiple running backs. Trey Sermon has a nice opportunity with Jeff Wilson out for the first six weeks. The 49ers ran the ball on average 27 times per game last season and when healthy his counterpart Mostert averaged 13 carries per game. The Lions are all-around bad on defense. With a 17-game season and Mostert’s injury history in mind, I see the 49ers running away with this and giving Sermon an extended look.
The Lions gave up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to running backs last season including a 40 point game, a 30 point game, and seven 20 point games. Sermon at worst should see 40% of the backfield work, which against the Lions should give you an RB2 start with RB1 upside.
James Robinson (vs. HOU) START
The rollercoaster ride of an offseason for James Robinson fantasy managers ends the way it all started with JRob and that is as the Jags starting running back with limited competition behind him. Robinson was the undrafted Cinderella story of 2020 and he gets a matchup against the lowly Texans to start 2021 who were the worst team against fantasy running backs last season.
Robinson will see a healthy workload in an offense that should produce more effectively and efficiently. Robinson had four 100+ yard rushing games and seven 100+ yard games from scrimmage last season, seeing 21 touches per game. His effectiveness should improve and 16-18+ touches are realistic against Houston. This is a smash start and certainly a situation worth monitoring as a JRob owner to take advantage of an aggressive fantasy running back market.
Darrell Henderson (vs. CHI) SIT
The Los Angles Rams backfield situation has been one of the most interesting to watch for fantasy this offseason from the Cam Akers Achilles tear to the Sony Michel trade to McVay’s Henderson hype. Now we get to watch the situation unfold in-game against one of the top ten teams against the run last season, the Chicago Bears.
Henderson faced the Bears last season and put up a putrid 9.6 point performance. Before you say “well he wasn’t the lead back” – he was. He saw a season-high 40 snaps (56% versus Malcolm Brown’s 40% snap share). He pumped out 15 attempts for 63 yards and two receptions on two targets for 13 yards. He’s coming off a thumb injury that has limited him in practice and we don’t know the true impact of where Michels touches will come from. Plus it’s a date with the Bears. I’m out – at least for this week.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: WR
Devonta Smith (vs. ATL) START
I usually don’t like to start rookie wide receivers right away. I like to watch, evaluate and try to understand the situation. Smith has faced heat from the fantasy community for his size and how he’s going to challenge bigger, stronger, and pressing corners. Well, a small glimpse into joint practices and the one preseason game he played, he quelled those fears putting DBs on ice daily! What makes this a fantastic opportunity is a fact that the Falcons have a terrible pass defense as I stated above with Jalen Hurts.
They gave up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season with over 45 per game. This included 12 100-yard WRs and only holding a team’s top WR to less than 15 points in three out of 16 games. It’s not crazy to anticipate Smith getting a nice welcome to the NFL by being peppered with targets and pumping out over 100 yards. The game should be a shootout thanks to two lackluster defenses.
Parris Campbell (vs. SEA) START
It feels like years since Parris Campbell last played an NFL game, but really it was Week 2 last season before an MCL and PCL sprain ended his season. In Week 1, Campbell gave managers just a glimpse of the weapon he could be. He was targeted nine times, making six receptions for 71 yards in a near top 24 performance. With TY Hilton due to miss extended time and an upgrade at quarterback with Wentz’s arrival, prepare yourself to see some more of Parris Campbell.
The Seahawks were the 4th worst team against WRs last season giving up 43 points per game and allowing the most receptions at the position 283 or 17 per game. They improved as the season wore on, but the Colts have a lot of weapons. With the likely focus being on stopping Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Wentz’s choice of his favorite TE, and keeping Wentz in the pocket, Campbell and his game-breaking speed may be quietly waiting to explode.
I think Campbell has the upside to boom early and put up a top 24 showing.
Allen Robinson (vs. LAR) SIT
I love Allen Robinson, but a date with Jalen Ramsey is never good for the receiver lined up across from him! Last season the Rams were one of the strongest teams against wide receivers. They were the only team to allow less than 30 points per game. They allowed the least amount of touchdowns to WRs (7). While only allowing two 100-yard WRs all of last season. The two main things you look for to get your fantasy points are consistently negated by Rams DBs.
When Robinson met Ramsey last season he saw a season-low four targets, catching all of them for 70 yards, but only 11 PPR points and a WR44 finish for the week. He was the top WR on the Bears in fantasy that week. His counterparts, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller saw more targets but fared no better for managers. The Rams are rock solid on the outside against receivers. I’d skeptically consider starting any receiver against them.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: TE
Tyler Higbee (vs. CHI) START
I understand that a lot of people are stashing Jacob Harris in hopes of another athletic TE destroying Higbee’s fantasy relevance. I do believe this could happen, but not so fast. I do think Higbee will get the majority of looks in the early going. This includes a date with the Bears who, given their top 10 defense, surprisingly didn’t play that well against TEs last season.
Higbee ranked 6th in fantasy football points per target, 11th in points per route run, and was 3rd in QB rating when targeted. He can produce and be reliable, but the fantasy community has to have someone to give tough love to. The Bears gave up the second-most points per game to tight ends, including the third-most touchdowns. Higbee was targeted 6 times in the red zone last season and caught all targets and produced four TDs. The stars are aligning for a Higbee boom week!
Mike Gesicki (vs. NE) SIT
Mike Gesicki is one of the most polarizing tight ends. You either love him or hate him. I hate him this week against a New England squad that despite all their Covid opt-outs last season was still dominant at shutting down TEs. Gesicki missed the second game against the Pats last season, but in his first meeting in Week 1, he produced six fantasy points – 30 yards on three receptions. The quarterback is different for him this time (Tua) but the defense he will face is better!
The Patriots gave up the 4th lowest amount of points to tight ends and only gave up more than 15 points once and that was in Week 17. Only six tight ends managed 50 yards in a game against them and none ever got over 85. They also allowed only three total touchdowns, tied for the lowest. Gesicki can help you based on certain matchups, but as hard as it may be to believe with how well they did last season, I think the Pats will be even stronger against TEs this year.
